Here comes a tense Tony’s.
Last year, many of the major winners were a cinch to predict.
This time, well, the bars at Radio City Music Hall will be doing big business. Everybody’s freaking out. Producers have been like pollsters the past two weeks, interrogating the 840 Tony voters about who they’ve chosen.
They’ve also put on their politician hats, hosting more down-to-the-wire cocktail parties than I’ve ever seen in a single season.
“It’s insane,” one insider vented.
And it’s heated: Audra vs. Nicole; Groff vs. Criss; “Oh, Mary!” vs. “Purpose.”
For viewers, that’s a lot more fun than: “Hamilton,” “Hamilton,” “Hamilton.”
As for George Clooney, at least he has his millions and some Oscars to console him when he loses.
Here’s who I think goes home happy Sunday night.
Best Musical: “Maybe Happy Ending”
It’s the feel-good story of the year, and I don’t mean the South Korean robo rom-com’s heartwarming plot.
“Maybe Happy Ending” nearly didn’t open on Broadway because of cash problems but, thanks to great reviews and euphoric word of mouth, the show has rebounded big time. Voters adore it.
No other musical this season has won any lead-up trophies. And even “Happy Ending”’s glitzier competition — “Death Becomes Her” and “Buena Vista Social Club” — aren’t exactly the “Wicked” to its “Avenue Q.” Definitely happy ending.
Best Play: “Oh, Mary!”
There are three shows up for this award that are still running: Cole Escola’s Mary Todd Lincoln farce “Oh, Mary!,” Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ explosive drama about a black political dynasty “Purpose,” and the high-school MeToo story “John Proctor is the Villain.”
Voters are most vocal about “Oh, Mary!” and “Purpose.”
What’s weird is that the scrappy, strange, downtown show, “Mary,” is also the commercial juggernaut. With no A-list stars and a unique sense of humor, it regularly outgrosses most musicals.
Plus, it’s an organic, original hit that began here in New York. Audiences have bombarded it. In recent years, events tend to win.
A couple of stats. The Drama League has only got this category wrong twice in the past 25 years. They picked “Oh, Mary!”. “Purpose” won the Pulitzer, but the last time a Pulitzer winner for Best Play took the Tony was “Clybourne Park” 14 years ago.
Some Broadway insiders find the comedy in “Oh, Mary!” slight, while others say “Purpose” is too traditional. I loved both. And both could take it.
“I think ‘Proctor’ and ‘Purpose’ split the ‘Oh, Mary!’-is-a-skit voters, and ‘Oh, Mary!’ wins,” said one voter.
Best Revival of a Play: “Eureka Day”
“Eureka Day” was only written in 2018, so it doesn’t feel like a revival.
It’s hilarious Zoom scene sure ain’t from “All My Sons.”
But voters liked it a touch more than the older “Yellow Face.”
Best Revival of a Musical: “Sunset Boulevard”
A word about “Gypsy”: Many voters do not care for this production. They cannot stop whining about it.
However, they admire-to-love director Jamie Lloyd’s revitalized, reinvented staging of “Sunset Boulevard,” and it wins handily. Andrew Lloyd Webber snags his first competitive Tony in more than 30 years.
Best Actress in a Musical: Nicole Scherzinger, “Sunset Boulevard”
The most exciting Tonys race of the night has been raging for nearly a year, since “Gypsy” (starring Audra McDonald) and “Sunset Boulevard” (starring Nicole Scherzinger) began handing out competing merch last summer in the Fire Island Pines: “Sunset” totes at the pantry, “Audra Gypsy” cups at the Blue Whale bar.
Despite many fantastic reviews for six-time Tony winner McDonald as Rose, the industry itself is more divided on her performance than critics. However, many voters see Scherzinger as a revelation.
You can’t count Audra out, but smart insiders I’ve talked to say it’s Nicole.
Best Actor in a Musical: Darren Criss, “Maybe Happy Ending”
Last year’s winner, Jonathan Groff, is exceptional as Bobby Darin in “Just in Time.”
But what gives me pause about his chances is that an actor in a show that’s not nominated for Best Musical hasn’t won this category since Barry Bostwick in 1977 for “The Robber Bridegroom.”
And a musical performer hasn’t won twice in a row since Gwen Verdon.
Darin is a flashier part than Criss’ android in “Maybe Happy Ending” — however, many voters will want new blood. Criss by a hair.
Best Actor in a Play: Cole Escola, “Oh, Mary!”
How hilarious that, in a year with Oscar winners George Clooney, Denzel Washington, and Robert Downey Jr., the absolutely-no-contest Best Actor winner is Cole Escola for “Oh, Mary!”
Best Actress in a Play: Sarah Snook, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Sunday night will be a great success for the “Succession” actress, who expertly plays 26 roles in “The Picture of Dorian Gray.”
A few other categories:
Michael Arden likely edges out Lloyd as Best Director of a Musical for “Maybe Happy Ending” (there’s always some anti-screen people).
Sam Pinkleton probably wins Director of a Play for “Oh, Mary!”.
Natalie Venetia Belcon has a lot of support for her Featured Actress in a Musical turn in “Buena Vista Social Club”
And Featured Actor in a Musical goes to Jak Malone for “Operation Mincemeat.”