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The sample sizes are too small to condemn the Mets over their struggles with runners in scoring position.
Entering play Saturday, they were hitting .178 (the second worst in baseball) with a .615 OPS (the sixth worst in baseball) when there were runners on second and/or third base.
Just three weeks into the season, a few clutch hits in a few days can bring the Mets from the bottom to at least the middle of the pack — but elevating themselves up that leaderboard has been a focus.
More helpful than baseline numbers in evaluating such a small amount of at-bats — 174 entering play — is their at-bat quality.
What Eric Chávez has seen has suggested his team is trying to do too much in crucial moments.
“Our swing rate is way up and our chase rate is way up with runners in scoring position,” the Mets co-hitting coach said before a 3-0 win over the Cardinals at Citi Field. “It’s something we’re trying to address and kind of get into a flow with the offense.”
He is correct.
When the Mets have stepped to the plate with the bases empty, they have swung at 45.4 percent of pitches and chased pitches out of the strike zone 27.6 percent of the time.
Compare those numbers with the 49.9 percent swing rate and 31.3 percent chase rate when there is a runner on second and/or third, and perhaps the Mets’ early clutch struggles can be explained.
“When nobody’s on, everyone’s a little more relaxed,” Chávez said. “To me, that’s an emotional response, as opposed to just keeping it the same — just be a good hitter and swing at good pitches and understand what the pitcher wants to do and not do.”
It is difficult to treat every at-bat the same, and it is easy to see a runner on third and become overeager to put a ball in play.
Chávez believes his team is beginning to make progress and singled out Francisco Lindor.
On Tuesday in Minnesota, Lindor stepped up to the plate in the ninth inning representing the potential tying run with two on base.
He chased a first-pitch knuckle-curve from Jhoan Duran that was far below the zone.
After laying off three balls, he swung through a splitter that might have nicked the bottom of the zone and swung through 101.8 mph heat in the middle of the plate.
“He was very, very ‘I-got-it’ anxious,” Chávez said.
The two talked about the at-bat and about settling down.
A day later, Lindor worked a quality, six-pitch at-bat against Griffin Jax in the eighth inning that ended with a single before facing Duran again in the ninth and drawing a five-pitch walk.
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“I found something that calmed me down,” Lindor told him.
As a group, the Mets are working to strike the same heartbeat in the big moments as the small ones.
There is large potential within a group that has begun breaking out, including encouraging work from Lindor and Mark Vientos, who with Pete Alonso and Juan Soto can make the offense special.
Chávez is confident the group will come together, and the weather heating up will help.
“We’re not even near where we need to be,” Chávez said, “but thank God the pitchers are doing their job.”