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The Xavier Musketeers will be buoyant after pulling out a thrilling victory over Texas in their First Four game on Wednesday.
The Musketeers turned around an eight-point deficit in a dominant second-half performance and now will carry that momentum in a Round 1 tilt with No. 6 Illinois in Milwaukee.
The Illini are three-point favorites at bet365 for Friday night’s contest.
Read our betting preview below and be sure to check out our exclusive bonus code from bet365.
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Xavier vs. Illinois betting preview
This is a fun one to handicap.
Illinois is the higher seed and favorite, but the line has moved towards Xavier after opening at Illinois -4.5.
This is not an unusual phenomenon, as we’ll often see the market gather around teams that won a game in the First Four in Round 1.
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The caveat here is that Xavier’s win over Texas was part of a long string of an encouraging bigger picture. The Musketeers won seven in a row to close out the regular season and then rebounded from a two-point defeat against Marquette in the Big East Tournament with a strong effort against the Longhorns.
Illinois, meanwhile, went 3-4 in its last seven regular season contests and then split its only two games in the Big Ten Tournament.
Xavier vs. Illinois pick
As encouraging as Xavier’s form may be, it does seem like the market is getting a little carried away here.
Sure, Illini backers will wish they closed out the season in better fashion, but their final four losses in the regular season came against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Duke, and it’s defeat in the Big Ten Tournament came at the hands of Maryland.
That is par for the course for Illinois, which played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country, per KenPom.
This seems like a good opportunity to fade a team that is getting steamed thanks to recency bias after a stirring win in the First Four.
Pick: Illinois -3 (bet365)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.