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The Toronto Maple Leafs earned a much-needed win over the Calgary Flames on Monday night, but that was just a tiny step in the right direction for a team that has been in a funk since the beginning of March.
Toronto is 3-4-1 in its last eight contests and all four of its regulation losses in that span came against teams currently in a playoff position.
Even more damning is that the Leafs were outscored, 19-10, in those four contests.
The Leafs welcome the red-hot Colorado Avalanche to Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday night. The Avs are a -120 favorite at the time of writing.
A full betting breakdown and an exclusive promo code from Fanatics Sportsbook awaits below.
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Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs prediction
While the Leafs have fallen flat this month, Avalanche are running rampant. The Avs are 8-0-1 in their last nine contests and boast a +22 goal difference (40 GF, 18 GA) in that span.
Colorado’s offensive chops have never been in question, but seeing the Avs excel in their own end of the ice has caught the attention of the betting market.
The Avalanche are down to +900 to win the Stanley Cup at Fanatics Sportsbook.
The numbers back up the market’s confidence in Colorado. This isn’t some flukey stretch thanks to a hot shooting percentage or dominant goaltending. The Avs own the third-best goal difference in the NHL over the last 10 games and their 55% expected-goals rate is also third in the circuit.
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs pick
While Colorado’s statistical profile suggests there’s a chance it continues to improve, Toronto’s paints the opposite picture.
The Leafs have enough high-end talent to get away with a mediocre process on some nights, but against the Avalanche, it’s a different story.
Toronto ranks last in the NHL in expected-goals rate over its last 10 games and the Leafs are giving up an average of two more high-danger chances per game at 5-on-5 than they are creating.
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That just won’t fly against the red-hot Avs.
The Leafs looked like a contender a few months ago, and it seems like the betting market is giving them too much credit for how they played for the first 50 games of the campaign and not where their game is at now.
That puts decent value on Colorado as a slight road favorite Wednesday evening.
The Pick: Avalanche -125 or better (Fanatics)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.