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Heroes are made in March and the Cinderella Story is a March Madness staple.
As sports fans — and gamblers — we love the idea of an unthinkable underdog taking one lucky hot streak all the way to the Big Dance.
Even if they don’t win it all, you just dream about riding moneyline bets on No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast to an improbable Sweet 16 run that included two wins as a massive underdog.
Or how about those who cashed five straight moneyline bets in 2010 on the No. 5 seed Butler Bulldogs, led by Gordon Hayward and then-coach Brad Stevens, who came within a half-court prayer that just missed of beating Duke in the national championship game?
Let’s get into what teams have that kind of potential in 2025 to be a squad you will never forget and always be thankful to have backed.
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March Madness first-round upset picks
No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons (+125) vs. No. 5 Michigan
Thirty-three of the last 39 tournaments have featured at least one No. 12 seed beating a No. 5 seed.
The Tritons are a tough draw for Michigan, which is coming off a Big Ten title but still being given no love by the committee with this No. 5 seeding.
The Wolverines have plenty of size down low, but we’re learning that guard play and 3-point shooting rule the roost in March Madness.
San Diego takes the third most 3-point attempts per game (29.6) of the field and makes the most per game (10.8).
The Tritons will keep shooting, while Michigan struggles to hit shots from downtown.
The Wolverines shot just 33.41 percent from 3-point land, the 209th-best percent in the country.
It feels like a math equation game that UC San Diego has a good chance to win Thursday night.
No. 13 Yale (+240) vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
Let’s stick with our love for 3-point shooting in another Thursday clash.
The Yale Bulldogs are eighth in the nation in 3-point percentage (39.72), the third-best number of any team in the tournament. They have the ability to beat any team in the country if they get hot from deep.
Texas A&M is undoubtedly a tough draw, rating No. 17 according to KenPom, while Yale is all the way down at 73.
There’s not a whole lot that else that favors Yale, as A&M is an elite interior team that is fifth in rebounding and by far No. 1 in offensive rebounds per game (16.19).
However, the same math problem exists for the Aggies: They don’t shoot or make enough 3-pointers.
They average just seven 3-pointers made per game, the 257th-best number in the country.
That’s just not enough outside shooting potential to compete with a potential hot-handed Bulldogs team.
The beauty of these two potential upsets is that they’d match up against each other in a 3-point shooting war in the Round of 32.
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