Hand it to Russian President Vladimir Putin: His response to President Donald Trump’s proposal for a cease-fire is nothing short of cunning.
He seeks to avoid a clash with Trump while he continues his aggression in Ukraine — so he claims he’s open to a cease-fire, but then pivots to the “nuances” that must be explored.
Those nuances are complex and include unacceptable conditions.
Putin’s “yes,” in other words, is really a disguised “no” to Trump’s halting of hostilities.
Remember, Putin’s objective in Ukraine is not just to secure his control of the 20% of Ukraine that he occupies but effective political control of the entire country.
That requires him to conquer more territory, including the major cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson and Odessa.
He doesn’t want to end military operations as his forces are making progress, even if slowly and despite the human cost.
He also still needs to defeat Ukrainian forces in the Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast.
Ukraine’s quick acceptance of Trump’s proposal posed a dilemma for him: how to continue the war but not provoke the US president.
Putin knows Russia’s economy, now on war footing, is suffering from high inflation and interest rates that are putting Russian firms at grave risk.
Recruitment for his high-casualty war is barely adequate and adds to the economic woes.
So the Russian dictator is seeking to encourage the Trump team to disengage from Ukraine. Without American weapons — however they’re paid for — Ukraine would find it much harder to prevent further Russian gains.
Which is why he was delighted by the White House decision to “pause” US military shipments and intelligence-sharing this month and unhappy with the decision this week to end the pause.
He’s also concerned about Trump’s statement that if Putin declines to end the war, he would impose major new sanctions.
He’s even more fearful that if the White House perceives him as an obstacle to peace, it might use military means, as Vice President JD Vance has hinted, to ensure Ukraine survives as a “sovereign, independent country.”
As part of his game plan, Putin aims to control the negotiations with Washington. He happily met with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, a successful businessman not well-versed in Russian policy or tactics.
To promote Witkoff, Putin offered him Marc Fogel, a US teacher unjustly imprisoned in Russia, to bring home to the US as an early foreign policy trophy for Trump.
(Putin didn’t even have to pay a price for this, because in exchange for Fogel, the US released Russian money-launderer Aleksandr Vinnik.)
Putin is gambling that Trump is more interested in a quick deal on a cease-fire than in one that protects Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.
He hopes Trump will reason that it would take more time and effort to persuade Russia to do the right thing than to force Ukraine to accept concessions, even if that creates great future risk.
But Putin’s approach also allows flexibility if the administration doesn’t fall for his gambit.
He has used his public control over the Russian media to signal very different outcomes to his war on Ukraine and peace talks.
One is the maximalist notion that Russia is doing well on the battlefield and has firm conditions that must be met in any peace deal.
But significant Russian media figures this year spoke as if Russia had already achieved its aims in Ukraine, and it might be time to pocket them.
Putin hopes Trump’s tentatively positive initial response to his comments on the cease-fire means his subterfuge is working.
But Trump also said he wants to see the results after Witkoff’s talks in Moscow.
To strengthen his position, Putin is angling for a phone call.
He may understand that the Trump administration was sending a warning to Moscow when the Treasury Department confirmed that the United States let a sanctions waiver allowing energy transactions with Russian financial institutions expire this week.
Those transactions too are now banned.
Whatever Trump’s final assessment, Putin also has the flexibility to react.
If Washington favors Russia, Putin can sit back and enjoy Washington muscling Kyiv for more concessions.
But if Trump calls out Putin’s response for the sleight-of-hand that it is, the Russian strongman might decide it’s better to take the cease-fire.
Again, he wants to avoid further US sanctions and, especially, greater quantities and more advanced types of US weapons heading to Ukraine.
That would ensure Putin’s troops could advance no farther and perhaps even lose conquered territory.
A policy of peace through strength, then, can help Trump prevail.
John Herbst, former ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan, is senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.