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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 16 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Buccaneers -4 over COWBOYS
Don’t buy into last week’s Cowboys dismantling of the Panthers that much.
Tampa Bay has one of the best running backs in the NFL in Bucky Irving, who looked surprisingly healthy last week.
Dallas is allowing 5.8 yards per play, the second-worst figure in the NFL.
Tampa Bay rolls.
FALCONS -8.5 over Giants
The Giants are just waiting for this season to end, and they could’ve lost by 50 to the Ravens if Baltimore hadn’t called off the dogs early in the fourth quarter.
Kirk Cousins is out, otherwise we’d be betting Giants to cover.
Michael Penix Jr. shows he’s the man for the job behind one of the league’s best sets of playmakers that still carries the 10th-best yards per play average (5.8) despite terrible quarterback play up to this point.
JETS +3 over Rams
Bettors have been pounding the Jets all year, projecting them to win games left and right.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is coming off the best game of his Jets career as they look to finish a nightmare season strong.
“Madden” won’t like these ratings, but the Jets win outright in Metlife.
Lions -6.5 over Bears
Detroit is going to need to outscore all of the teams it plays against going forward, and these games certainly matter.
The Lions run in with Jahmyr Gibbs, who is more than capable of taking over the lead running back role — injuries to RBs on potent offenses are far from the reason to bet against a team.
Detroit’s defense is ravaged by injuries and not good right now, but the Bears’ defense is fifth-worst in yards per play as well.
Since the Bears switched coaches, they have the second-worst yards-per-play average (4.3) in the league, ahead of only the Giant.
BENGALS -8.5 over Browns
If Jameis Winston was starting here, we’d have more pause about laying on the Bengals.
But Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions so far in the NFL.
Sure, he can run, but the Bengals offense is the best in football.
This is a smash spot for Cincinnati, which is very sneakily trending toward a backdoor playoff spot with the Broncos on deck next week.
The Browns offense is going to be putrid even against a bad Bengals defense.
They allow just 4.4 yards per carry, 14th-best in the NFL — an average number but the best of a bad unit that they boast on defense.
Titans +3.5 over COLTS
The Titans are 2-12 against the spread, books just can’t figure them out.
They are solid defensively, opponents averaging just 5 yards per play this season, but they’ve also given the ball away 29 times, the most in the NFL.
Perhaps Mason Rudolph can fix that.
Coach Brian Callahan isn’t the only one wondering “what the f–-k” Will Levis was doing this season, but the coach waited too long to bench Will Levis.
Titans finally win outright.
Eagles -3.5 over COMMANDERS
A.J. Brown is good to go for the Eagles, seemingly the best team in the NFC right now.
Jalen Hurts threw all over the Steelers last week, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that it will be a run-first show this week.
Washington is the sixth-worst in YPC allowed (4.8), and the Eagles have Saquon Barkley to make them look foolish throughout this one.
Cardinals -4.5 over PANTHERS
Battle of the undersized quarterbacks.
Kyler Murray faces Bryce Young in what could be an intriguing game.
The Cardinals appear to be trending down while the Panthers looked to be getting better prior to last week’s drubbing as favorites to the Cowboys.
James Conner is averaging 4.5 YPC, and Carolina is a joke against the run — a league-worst 5.0 YPC allowed.
VIKINGS -3 over Seahawks
Seattle is a tough team to figure out.
They smashed the Cardinals twice, once on the road as underdogs, but those wins don’t look as good anymore.
The Seahawks also have a terrible loss to the Giants this year and arguably should have lost to the Jets.
So now we get to the Vikings, who are No. 6 overall in DVOA whereas the Seahawks are rated No. 21.
Minnesota’s defense is too good for the Seahawks run game.
The Vikings allow just 3.9 YPC, second best, while the Seahawks averaged just 3.8 YPC since Week 7, the third-worst mark in that span.
Patriots +14 over BILLS
I hate betting on Patriots coach Jerod Mayo, but it is a division game in which both teams typically play each other tough.
Last year, despite having Mac Jones at quarterback, the Patriots beat the Bills outright and lost by six points at Buffalo.
Drake Maye is absolutely an upgrade, and the defense is improving a bit after being putrid early in the season, allowing 5.4 yards per play in their past three games.
It’s really just about coaching decisions, which is not enough to get me to bite on the Bills at this price.
49ers +1 over DOLPHINS
Dolphins are cutting guys just so they can compete for a team that could make the playoffs — imagine that.
So why are they favored against a team with this much pride and starting every healthy body they have?
San Francisco is not a good matchup for Tua Tagovailoa, who allows teams to have the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL against man coverage, typically known as the coverage that the Dolphins struggle with the most.
RAIDERS -1 over Jaguars
Don’t you dare bet on the Jaguars’ 32nd-ranked passing defense. Aidan O’Connell and Mac Jones are bad, but the Raiders have the better defense (5.3 yards per play allowed vs. 6.1) and weapons are aplenty.
This will be a bad game, but there’s no way I’m taking the Jaguars.
Even if they get a lead, there’s no reason to believe they can hold it.
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Monday
PACKERS -14.5 over Saints
Spencer Rattler isn’t bad, but no Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill just spells disaster for a Day 3 rookie quarterback to handle.
Green Bay is among the favorites in the NFL for a reason and could just flex its muscle on Monday.
LAST WEEK: 7-9.
SEASON: 99-108-2.