ZUMAPRESS.com
Vladimir Putin’s regime is readying a new bag of diplomatic tricks for the second Trump administration, as the Kremlin angles to lure Trump’s incoming national-security team into helping Russia under the false guise of putting “America First.”
While Donald Trump largely avoided Putin’s ploys during his initial term, Trump 2.0 must slam the door on them.
Russian spies call Putin’s go-to technique for manipulating foreign leaders “reflexive control.”
This is KGB parlance for a well-honed method of deceiving individuals, or groups of powerful elites, by enticing them into believing they’re serving not Moscow’s interests but their own.
As a lifelong spy, Putin has mastered this form of deception and has used it against several previous American presidents.
He employed it with George W. Bush, famously fooling the president into believing that Russia was America’s partner in the War on Terror. Bush spent years offering enticements and concessions, only to have Putin demand more without reciprocating.
Bush was convinced that Putin was trustworthy, saying he “was able to get a sense of his soul.” Yet in a final reveal of his true intentions, Putin invaded Georgia in the waning months of Bush’s tenure in 2008.
The Russian dictator upped his deception game with Barack Obama, welcoming Obama’s “secret letter” and his proposed “reset” in relations. Believing that Europe was a quiet region, Obama chose to withdraw two US Army brigades and all of America’s heavy armor from Europe.
Putin pounced on this demonstration of weakness, annexing Crimea and launching his war against Ukraine in 2014.
Trump’s first term was too focused on repairing the setbacks of the Obama and Bush years to repeat his predecessors’ mistakes.
Trump returned America’s heavy armor and troops to Europe, imposed new sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine and made a major effort to stop Putin’s weaponization of energy by blocking his Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.
What then might we expect in the coming months?
Based on recent signals from the Kremlin, Putin is likely to spring at least three traps against the incoming administration.
First, fear of China. In November, Putin declared China an ally and called for joint efforts to counter US containment strategies. Beijing and Moscow have greatly strengthened their partnership in recent years, united against the US.
Putin is likely to exploit Trump’s focus on countering China to push for American cooperation and concessions, suggesting that such actions will keep Russia from aligning more closely with Beijing.
Trump must resist this ploy. Russia is already actively collaborating with China to dismantle American leadership in favor of a multipolar order through BRICS — a China- and Russia-led economic alliance of developing nations.
The president-elect recently issued a demand that the BRICS nations abandon plans to create an alternative currency to undermine the dollar, and has threatened 100% tariffs on them if they proceed — a decisive and necessary response.
Second, nuclear saber-rattling. Putin’s most effective tactic has been to use nuclear blackmail to goose Western fears of escalation.
Most recently, he has exploited such fears to manipulate the Biden administration into self-deterrence, repeatedly limiting military support for Ukraine and restricting its use of long-range weaponry.
Trump should not fall for it. The dictator has no intention of sparking nuclear conflagration.
Finally, while the Kremlin has long positioned Russia as a defender of “traditional” values against the liberal West, this is a cynical ruse. Russia has high abortion rates and skyrocketing divorce numbers, and the FSB has allegedly permeated the Russian Orthodox Church, placing Putin’s spies in the confessional.
Some in Trump’s previous orbit fell for Moscow’s bait. Former national security advisor Michael Flynn once praised Putin’s rhetoric on family and God, complaining that the West is undermining such values.
Putin will likely seek to exploit American cultural divisions by fueling rancorous debates over family and morality.
Instead of falling for Putin’s traps, Trump 2.0 should follow the doctrine of “peace through strength” — particularly flexing the element of economic “strength.”
He should quickly leverage America’s economic might and end the Biden-Harris administration’s failed loopholes and exemptions on Kremlin energy sanctions.
Trump will need to establish more geopolitical leverage over Russia, as the Obama White House and its European allies failed to do when they tried to negotiate peace with Putin after his 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
An initial ramp-up of American military equipment for Ukraine will show Putin that Trump means business.
By arming Hezbollah in the Middle East, fortifying North Korea with advanced air defense technology, toppling governments in Africa and challenging America through its “Axis of Resistance” with Iran, Putin has made the world a more dangerous place for Trump 2.0 to clean up.
Trump and his allies must accept that Putin’s Russia is no friend, but a dangerous foe — one that will deploy deception at every turn.
Peter Doran is adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Ivana Stradner is a research fellow.