NFL Week 16 picks: Broncos-Chargers matchup kicks off key divisional rivalries

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 13-3 (.813); season 154-70 (.688). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-7 (.563); season 120-102-2 (.541). Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.

Linebacker Daiyan Henley and the Chargers defense had Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) on the run in October.

(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

Tonight, 5:15. TV: Channel 11 (FOX), Amazon Prime Video

Line: Chargers by 2½. O/U: 42½.

The Chargers are really struggling on offense, and it looks as if losing J.K. Dobbins hurts them more than a lot of people anticipated. There’s something to the coach-quarterback combo of Sean Payton and Bo Nix.

Pick: Broncos 24, Chargers 20

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be hampered by an ankle injury if he is able to play against the Texans.

(David Richard / Associated Press)

Saturday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)

Line: Chiefs by 2½. O/U: 41½.

If Patrick Mahomes plays, he’ll be limited. Yes, the Chiefs want the No. 1 seed, but they have some margin for error. The Texans have a legitimate pass rush and enough poise to win this matchup.

Pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 21

It’s always a battle when Lamar Jackson (8) and the Ravens line up against the AFC North rival Steelers. Pittsburgh won the previous matchup in November.

(Gregory Payan / Associated Press)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)

Line: Ravens by 6½. O/U: 44½.

These AFC North rivals tend to split, and the Steelers won the first matchup. Both teams should be able to move the ball through the air. This matchup always seems to be a nail-biter.

Pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 23

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has led the Rams into first place in the NFC West with three games remaining.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)

Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 46½.

The Rams will have a little extra rest and should generate a lot of offense, even against a Jets pass defense that can shine at times. With the NFC West in his sights, Matthew Stafford steps on the gas.

Pick: Rams 28, Jets 20

Kirk Cousins has been fumbling along at quarterback so the Falcons are going to replace him with rookie Michael Penix Jr.

(David Becker / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Falcons by 8½. O/U: 40½.

The Falcons have two of the NFL’s worst teams back to back: the banged-up Raiders and the Giants with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. Atlanta is benching Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr.

Pick: Falcons 24, Giants 17

Quarterback Kyler Murray (1) leads a Cardinals offense that scored 30 points against the Patriots last week.

(Jeff Lewis / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Cardinals by 4½. O/U: 46½.

Historically, the Cardinals have not played well at Carolina, and now the Panthers are playing better. But Arizona is a better team and got to 30 against a respectable New England defense.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Panthers 20

The Lions have lost running back David Montgomery to a knee injury for the rest of the season.

(Rick Osentoski / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Lions by 6½. O/U: 47½.

The Lions are down multiple players, and losing David Montgomery is huge. But Detroit is an elite team and will take a head of steam into the playoffs. Maybe take away a couple of points with Montgomery out.

Pick: Lions 28, Bears 20

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) has been good and bad depending upon the week this season.

(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Colts by 3½. O/U: 42½.

This figures to be close. Leaning toward the Colts because it’s difficult to have much belief in that Tennessee offense. Anthony Richardson giveth and taketh away. Go with the home team.

Pick: Colts 24, Titans 20

Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin (17) and quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) have had cause to celebrate this season.

(Stephanie Scarbrough / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Eagles by 3½. O/U: 45½.

The Jayden Daniels-Terry McLaurin connection is fun to watch, but the Eagles are the more complete team. Philadelphia has so many weapons and a smothering defense.

Pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 20

Quarterback Joe Burrow (9) has played well during a subpar season for the Bengals.

(Stew Milne / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bengals by 7½. O/U: 42½.

Go with the better quarterback, and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow instills a lot of belief in his team. What’s more, the Bengals still have a faint postseason pulse. Cleveland’s defense is good but on the field a lot.

Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 18

The Seahawks could have difficulties if quarterback Geno Smith (7) is unable to play this week because of a knee injury suffered against the Packers.

(Ben VanHouten / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)

Line: Vikings by 3½. O/U: 42½.

Seattle typically is one of the tougher places to play, but the Seahawks are 3-5 at home. If Geno Smith is out, Sam Howell is going to have a long day against that Brian Flores defense.

Pick: Vikings 33, Seahawks 17

Quarterback Brock Purdy (13) and the 49ers are in a must-win situation in Miami, as are the Dolphins.

(Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)

Line: Dolphins by 1½. O/U: 44½.

Neither team is eliminated, so they’re both motivated. San Francisco’s defense did a good job of putting the wraps on that Rams offense in the rain. The visitors have enough to win this matchup.

Pick: 49ers 23, Dolphins 20

Bills quarterback Josh Allen appears to be running away in the race for MVP.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bills by 14½. O/U: 46½.

Josh Allen wraps up the MVP award if he hasn’t already. The Patriots are playing above their heads, but they’ll have a tough time against these Bills. Beating Detroit was a boost for Buffalo.

Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 20

Many believed Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson would not last the whole season.

(Chris O’Meara / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Raiders by 1½. O/U: 39½.

Sometimes games are so bad they’re good. The Raiders don’t have anyone left. Jacksonville has been close in most of its losses. Maybe this is a rare Jaguars win.

Pick: Jaguars 21, Raiders 17

The Buccaneers’ offense has thrived since Mike Evans (13) returned from injury.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)

Line: Buccaneers by 3½. O/U: 48½.

The Buccaneers keep it rolling. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are something to behold. The Cowboys have won three of four with Cooper Rush. That’s got to give them pause.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 23

The only losses suffered by quarterback Jordan Love (10) and the Packers this season have been against elite teams.

(Ben VanHouten / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Channel 7 (ABC), ESPN

Line: Packers by 14½. O/U: 42½.

The only teams that have beaten the Packers are the Eagles, Vikings and Lions. Green Bay looks battle-tested and ready for the postseason. New Orleans is hanging in there.

Pick: Packers 28, Saints 17