Getty Images
The betting world is often held in high regard because money talks. The experts know what they are doing, especially at the end of the year. That’s when the market is considered much tighter because of all the data points collected throughout the season.
But what do we make of a handful of experts having such a contrasting view in December? Specifically, the ACC championship game has seen a drastic 5.5-point line move. Late Saturday night, Clemson opened as three-point favorites before respected bettors steadily backed SMU. Within a full day, the Mustangs flipped to a 2.5-point favorite.
“It’s rare but it happens. A couple of our oddsmakers made Clemson a three-point favorite and stuck by their guns,” Las Vegas veteran oddsmaker and Circa Sportsbook manager Nick Bogdanovich told Only Players via text message. “We shall see who was right at the end.”
In the inefficient world that is college football, this is a tough game to assess. Both teams could have inflated records because of the unbalanced schedule in the 18-team ACC.
Clemson faced only one of the six other schools that finished 5-3 or better in conference play, while SMU faced two of them.
In those specific meetings, Clemson lost at home to Louisville while SMU beat the Cardinals, 34-27, on the road in a game it never trailed. The Mustangs also beat Duke but it was a miraculous win after suffering six turnovers.
I believe SMU is the better team but Clemson could eke it out because of Dabo Swinney’s experience in this situation. However, all season the Tigers have underdelivered in the biggest moments. Against their three toughest opponents (Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina), the Tigers mustered a combined 38 total points in three losses.
Betting on College Football?
- Check out the best College Football betting sites
- Read our expert’s guide on how to bet on College Football
- Get the latest College Football National Championship winner odds
In my eyes, the smartest play is Clemson’s team total Under 26.5 points. The SMU defense is highly regarded in football circles and ranks among the top 20 in many statistical categories. While there is concern some of those metrics are inflated by a softer schedule, all teams face weak opponents so that might be neutralized.
The main reason I prefer taking Clemson’s team total Under instead of laying 2.5 points with SMU is because I think it is more likely that SMU does not cover in a low-scoring game than covers in a high-scoring one. Thus, I feel there are more ways to win with the team total wager.