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It has been 52 years since an NFL season ended with an undefeated team. It has been nearly five decades since Bobby Knight’s Hoosiers completed their perfect season.
In college football, it is commonplace.
Michigan ran the table last season, the fifth national champion in six years to go undefeated. In six of the past nine national title games, both teams entered unbeaten. The BCS era (1998-2013) produced 19 perfect seasons.
This season has been an unusually chaotic mess. The highest-ranking teams have been as untrustworthy as any group since the 2007 season, which featured the only two-loss national champion (LSU) of the modern era.
The reigning champs (Michigan) suffered as many losses in their first seven games as they had the previous three years. The most dominant team of the decade (Georgia) lost as many games as it had the previous three seasons. The most dominant team of the generation (Alabama) lost its aura without Nick Saban, with its most losses in 14 years.
Following a decade when no playoff team had more than one loss, the 12-team field could include as many as eight teams with multiple losses — including Alabama (9-3) — and conclude with one of the least-celebrated champions of the era.
Unless Oregon is the last team standing.
Following Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, No. 1 Oregon (12-0) — the nation’s top-ranked team for seven straight weeks — has finally become the betting favorite for the national championship, a decade after losing the first College Football Playoff title game.
The Ducks have been building toward this moment. Under Dan Lanning — who won a national championship as an assistant at Alabama and another as Georgia’s defensive coordinator — Oregon went 10-3 in his first season. The Ducks went 12-2 last season, with those losses coming by a total of six points against the national championship runner-up (Washington).
This year’s group has won by an average of nearly 20 points per game, defeating No. 6 Ohio State, No. 10 Boise State and No. 21 Illinois. Oregon again boasts one of the best offensive lines in the nation, allowing just five sacks in its past 10 games. Graduate transfer — and one-time Heisman favorite — Dillon Gabriel became the NCAA’s all-time leader for total touchdowns. The Ducks defense ranks among the top 10 units in the nation, most recently recording 10 sacks against Washington, while limiting star running back Jonah Coleman to three yards rushing.
The choice in the Big Ten title game is simple: Oregon (-3.5), the most consistent team in the country, or James Franklin, who has ridden an ultra-soft schedule to his 21st meeting at Penn State against a top 10 opponent (2-18).
Western Kentucky (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE STATE
The Hilltoppers on Saturday knocked off the Gamecocks, whose coach, Rich Rodriguez, is surrounded by rumors he will soon leave the program. Even if Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff — a game-time decision — returns from an ankle injury, the dual-threat quarterback will be limited in what he does best in the rematch.
Unlv (+4) over BOISE STATE
The Broncos won last year’s Mountain West Championship with ease against UNLV. This season, Boise State went to Las Vegas and left with a win. UNLV, though, has the ingredients to pull the upset, with a top-15 run defense that held Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty to his worst performance of the season (3.9 yards per carry). The Broncos deserved a chance to play for a national championship under Chris Petersen, but now carry the weight of Idaho against a team with eight straight road wins.
ARMY (+4.5) over Tulane
A team stacked with players raised below the Mason-Dixon Line won’t enjoy the freezing temperatures beside the Hudson River. The tougher team will be made clear in the trenches, where Tulane’s defensive line has been pushed around in all three of its losses, allowing an average of 211 yards rushing. In leading the nation’s best ground game, Bryson Daily will wrap up his incredible career at West Point with an unforgettable AAC Championship performance.
Arizona State (-2.5) over Iowa State
The Cyclones achieved their first 10-win season in school history, with one of the softest schedules in the Big 12 and the league’s top-scoring defense, averaging nearly two takeaways per game. The Sun Devils, tied for seventh in the nation in fewest turnovers, would be wise to ride criminally under-discussed star running back Cam Skattebo against a defense ranked 112th against the run.
Miami (Ohio) (-3) over Ohio
Sixth-year Redhawks quarterback Brett Gabbert will claim his third MAC title (second consecutive). Miami’s 30-20 win in the rivalry in October is more impressive than the box score suggests, having allowed a pair of garbage-time touchdowns to the Bobcats.
Georgia (+2.5) over Texas
The Longhorns faced one team this season that currently has a number next to its name. That game, in Austin, ended with Georgia handing Texas the worst home loss, 30-15, of a No. 1 team in 42 years. The Bulldogs received their wake-up call in the eight-overtime thriller against Georgia Tech and will find the form of the team with three double-digit wins over potential playoff teams (Texas, Tennessee, Clemson). Carson Beck has recovered from his midseason slump, throwing 11 touchdowns with no interceptions in the past three games. He carries an 8-3 career record against ranked teams into a de facto home game in Atlanta.
Marshall (+5.5) over LOUISIANA
The Thundering Herd can limit how much Louisiana’s explosive offense has the ball, with a ground game averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game. Defensive lineman Mike Green can also disrupt the Cajuns’ rhythm, entering a half-sack shy (16) of the most in the nation. Marshall is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog this season.
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Smu (-2.5) over Clemson
The line opened with the Tigers as the favorite, but the brand name isn’t fooling anyone anymore. No. 17 Clemson (9-3) has no business being anywhere near the playoff, reaching the ACC Championship without earning one win over any of the other six teams with a winning record in the conference. SMU’s (11-1) elite defensive front will keep the offense of Clemson — averaging less than 21 points in its past four games — scuffling.
Best bets: Oregon, Unlv, Arizona State
This season: 111-98-1 (17-24-1)
2014-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30