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In November, Hamas terrorists released a propaganda video of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander pleading with President-elect Donald Trump to use his “influence and the full power of the United States to negotiate” to free the hostages.
Hamas is holding 101 hostages, seven of whom are Americans, though four are believed dead.
The terrorists’ video clearly got Trump’s attention.
In a post on his Truth Social site, the president-elect stated that “if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025 … there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.”
He added, “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”
Trump is taking a page from President Ronald Reagan’s playbook.
When Reagan was elected, Iran held 53 American hostages seized from the US Embassy in Tehran.
The humiliating hostage crisis and failed Desert One rescue mission bolstered perceptions of American weakness and contributed to President Jimmy Carter’s electoral defeat.
Negotiations for release of the hostages were ongoing after the election, and one day before Reagan took office, the mullahs caved and agreed to let the Americans go.
The timing of the settlement was no coincidence: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini knew little about Reagan, but during the 1980 campaign, the mainstream media had portrayed “The Gipper” as a Cold War nuclear cowboy, hawkish and unpredictable.
The mullahs feared if they held on to the Americans into Reagan’s term they’d face an ultimatum — or a swift and significant attack.
Iranian regime proxies reached out to the Reagan transition team to gauge the mood.
Incoming National Security Advisor Richard Allen said that when the team heard Tehran’s concerns about Reagan’s alleged instability, it went right on letting the mullahs believe the worst.
The message back to Iran’s leaders was that all they had heard was true, that Reagan was completely unpredictable, potentially unstable and there were no guarantees once he took the oath.
Their best course of action would be to conclude a deal ASAP.
The back-channel messaging encouraged the Iranians to let the hostages go, and it fell to the newly sworn-in president to announce that the freed Americans were on their way home.
President-elect Trump is communicating the same message to Hamas, more overtly and with the added benefit that the terrorists already know he means business.
They saw how Trump dealt with ISIS in his first term, extinguishing its caliphate and taking out its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
They watched as Trump eliminated its chief patron, Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.
And Hamas knows that as a US-listed foreign terrorist group, there’s no practical limits as to what Trump can do to it.
Hamas also understands Trump’s past strong support for Israel and special relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu.
So, it can expect an end to Biden administration policies that sought to reign in Israel and accommodate Hamas’ backers in Tehran.
The terrorists can anticipate a more gloves-off approach from the United States, especially since they are holding American citizens hostage, some of whom have been killed.
One of the dead, new reports revealed, is New York City native Omer Neutra, whose parents Ronen and Orna appeared at the Republican National Convention to chants of “bring them home.”
The Trump team will soon inherit the ongoing cease-fire negotiations, and could profitably encourage Hamas’ fears of what’s coming to push the process along.
The terrorists have been able to scuttle previous cease-fire proposals and hostage deals with outrageous conditions and last-minute demands.
They should know that the Trump team will be out for results, and Hamas will not be allowed to set the terms.
This is not about creating a temporary cease-fire but imposing an end to the fighting.
Trump can authorize increased intelligence-sharing, covert action, moves against Hamas finances and supplies, sanctions and seizures against Hamas supporters, selective strikes using the most advanced US weaponry — the full spectrum of American instruments of power.
There is more on the menu now than deploying a sinking offshore pier.
Responding quickly to the big changes to come may save Hamas suffering later when Trump takes office.
Serious people are returning to the White House, and it will be a very different world for terrorists after Jan. 20.
Hamas would be well-advised to meet Trump’s inauguration-day deadline — because unlike with Reagan, this is no bluff.
James S. Robbins is dean of academics at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, DC and author of the forthcoming book “Forging Peace Through Strength: Ronald Reagan and the Cold War.”