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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Steelers (+3) over BENGALS
Another physical AFC North affair, which doesn’t necessarily lend itself to success for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Temperatures are expected to be in the teens in Ohio, and Burrow has already said he’s concerned about his surgically repaired wrist in the cold.
They’re just not equipped to win in these conditions — especially against T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense.
Seahawks (+1) over JETS
Geno Smith gets his revenge, as the Jets are in the same spot as they were when he departed from the team in 2016.
Do you really envision the Jets being able to cover DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett?
Add in that Pro Football Focus ranks the Jets as the sixth-worst run defense while the Seahawks have the fifth-best rushing offense, and you have a recipe for disaster. Jets lose again.
Colts (-2.5) over PATRIOTS
New England’s defense is not the same unit Bill Belichick coached.
It has taken on a whole new form of a hapless unit that has no idea what they are doing against the pass, allowing the seventh-most yards per pass attempt.
Anthony Richardson has played better since being reinserted into the starting spot and should be able to use his legs effectively.
Cardinals (+3.5) over VIKINGS
Minnesota ranks No. 1 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), so it’s fair to expect Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to struggle a bit.
But the Cardinals are a much more well-rounded unit.
Arizona has the 10th-best offense, according to DVOA, and PFF has their offensive line ranked the fourth-best.
Arizona gives the Vikings everything they can handle and then some.
Titans (+6) over COMMANDERS
Jayden Daniels is clearly banged up and not the player we saw take this league by storm in the early weeks of the season.
The Titans have been a team I’ve wagered on far too much this season, but will continue to do so in Week 13.
Tennessee will stop the run like they always do — they have the fourth-best run defense.
Chargers (-1) over FALCONS
Bad matchup for my beloved Falcons.
The Chargers have unleashed Justin Herbert, who has rushing touchdowns in two of his past three games and is averaging 35.4 rushing yards per game.
Atlanta’s defense can’t contend with that, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks per game.
The Chargers also have the seventh-best passing defense in yards per pass attempt allowed, which should pose many issues for Kirk Cousins.
JAGUARS (+3.5) over Texans
Off a bye week, the Jaguars got a chance to think about a lost season in which they are 2-9 and in last place of a bad AFC South division.
Trevor Lawrence returns, and the Jags have been mostly competitive with him in the lineup.
Aside from the embarrassing loss to Detroit, Jacksonville has done a great job of losing close recently — falling in one-score games to the Packers, Eagles, Texans and Vikings.
Injuries had been an issue, but the Jaguars should be free and clear this week to maybe snag a victory against a division foe.
PANTHERS (+6) over Buccaneers
Bryce Young was sitting back and throwing dimes against a strong Chiefs defense last week.
Now, the Buccaneers come in as the league’s 21st-ranked pass defense, according to DVOA.
Bucky Irving should have another explosive day at running back, but the Panthers are improving, and Adam Thielen is a big part of that as a comfort blanket for their offense.
Rams (-2.5) over SAINTS
New Orleans at home is intriguing, but its pass defense is too terrible to back.
Puka Nacua will cook this sorry unit, which is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (sixth-worst) and only getting worse with Marshon Lattimore shipped out.
The Rams win this one thanks to an efficient passing offense surrounded by Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Eagles (+3) over RAVENS
Marquee game of the non-prime-time window as Jalen Hurts battles Lamar Jackson.
Both teams are capable of playing exceptional football, but we’ll back the better defense in this one.
Philadelphia has by far the best coverage grade this year according to PFF, and DVOA likes their run defense as well, rated No. 9.
BILLS (-7) over 49ers
A tough one to call in expected snowy conditions in Buffalo on Sunday night.
The 49ers teams in the past would be well equipped for this game, but Christian McCaffrey looks like a shell of his former self, not cutting with the same ferocity he did in the past.
Josh Allen can run over a defense that looks ripe to be without Nick Bosa, arguably their most important defender.
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Monday
BRONCOS (-5.5) over Browns
Jameis Winston can’t keep getting away with this, and he won’t on “Monday Night Football.”
The Broncos have the sixth-best passing defense, according to DVOA, and fourth-best defense overall.
They are allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt.
Winston goes back to his old turnover-prone ways in Mile High as Bo Nix leads Denver to another solid victory.
Last week: 7-5
Season: 76-90-1