He may be able to simultaneously placate Donald Trump and relieve considerable tension with Premier François Legault.
It often takes an external threat to prompt a group of people to circle the wagon and come together. In the past few days, we’ve seen Quebec Premier François Legault and his provincial counterparts uniting in common cause with the federal government of Justin Trudeau.
During the recent U.S. election campaign, Donald Trump suggested he would slap a 10 per cent tariff penalty on all imports entering the States. As campaign rhetoric, the patriotic affirmation resonates well: “Why buy from others, when we should be stimulating our economy and jobs by manufacturing those goods in America?”
It’s hard to know if Trump’s intention is really to go ahead with the tariffs. Is his threat more about sealing the border? Is it more about the economy and manufacturing jobs? Is 25 per cent just a negotiating number? Or is it just more patriotic chest-thumping without being sufficiently informed of the potential consequences on both sides of the border? These tariffs make little sense economically for either country, considering the ways in which our two economies and supply chains are intertwined. With almost $4 billion in daily cross-border trade, using tariffs to discourage affordable goods or oil from Canada could result in higher prices for U.S. companies and consumers, not to mention their gasoline prices.
Trudeau cannot afford politically, nor can Canadians afford economically, for this ill-considered initiative to proceed. The ball is very much in Trudeau’s court now, and is a huge test of his leadership.
Trudeau has already briefly discussed the issue with Trump, saying they talked about “laying out the facts.” Trump isn’t one for details and specifics, however, or being told what to do. Threats of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports probably won’t work either with him.
If committing to Trump that Canada will do everything it can to tighten up its border staves off the tariffs, Trudeau can save the day and walk away with a major victory. At the same time, he would finally be relieving considerable tension with our premier.
Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election.