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It has been a remarkable season for coach Curt Cignetti and the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (10-0).
The Hoosiers were projected to finish 17th in the Big Ten, but they are now the fifth-ranked team in the nation.
This weekend, the Hoosiers travel to Columbus to take on the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes for a shot to effectively punch their ticket to the College Football Playoffs.
Nevertheless, many fans and sports bettors alike are unconvinced of the Hoosiers’ legitimacy, as they have had the 106th-hardest strength of schedule this season, according to ESPN’s FPI.
The spread has fluctuated throughout the week and now sits at Buckeyes -10.5 at multiple sportsbooks.
What can we expect from this Big Ten game? Is a double-digit spread for a top-five matchup ridiculous or justified?
I’m leaning toward the former.
For one, the Bucks have had several offensive linemen suffer injuries throughout the season.
That list has included Josh Simmons, Zen Michalski, and most recently, starting center Seth McLaughlin, who tore his Achilles in practice this week.
And now, the Bucks have to face a Hoosiers front line that holds opponents to the second-fewest rushing yards per game (78.9) behind only Army.
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Their past three opponents, which included Donovan Edwards and the Wolverines and the Jonah Coleman-led Huskies, have only amassed 49.7 rushing yards per game, the lowest in the country during that span.
If Ohio State can’t establish a run game, the Hoosiers can lean on Mikail Kamara and the rest of their elite pass rush (fourth-highest-graded nationally, per PFF) to apply pressure on Will Howard, who could be in for a long day with a new center and banged up O-line.
I’ll roll with Indiana to at least keep this one close.
The play: Hoosiers +10.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
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Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.