Premier Scott Moe maintains a rural stronghold after the 2024 Saskatchewan election.
Remember that close race on provincial election night?
Or so it seemed.
Alas, numbers — especially selective ones — can be rather deceiving.
Beginning with the 15 closest seats won by fewer than 1,000 votes, 11 of those closes races (all in the cities and the north) were won by NDP candidates.
Sure, the four closest Sask. Party wins — Prince Albert Northcote (133 votes), Saskatoon Willowgrove (136 votes), Prince Albert Carleton (444 votes) and Moose Jaw Wakamow (925 votes) — were won by that slim 1,638-vote total.
But NDP MLAs sweated through more close wins, including: Saskatoon Westview (74 votes); Saskatoon Southeast (429 votes); Saskatoon Silversprings (436 votes); Regina Northeast (507 votes); Saskatoon Mistawasis (559 votes); Regina University (574 votes); Regina Plains (593 votes); Cumberland (647 votes); Athabasca (788 votes); Regina Rochdale (816 votes), and; Saskatoon Stonebridge (841 votes).
One might also include in this lot the NDP wins in Regina Pasqua (1,005 votes), Regina Coronation Park (1,092 votes) and perhaps even Saskatoon University-Sutherland (1,298 votes), Saskatoon Fairview (1,358 votes) and Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood (1,359 votes). All fit in the category of ridings won by fewer than 1,500 votes that the Sask. Party may have hope of recapturing in the next election.
The good news for the NDP is that of these 20 closest races in the province (of which this party won 16), all were gained at the expense of the Sask. Party, except Cumberland and Coronation Park.
The Sask. Party didn’t knock off a single NDP incumbent, falling well short in city ridings where it was thought NDP MLAs might be vulnerable because of redistribution. These included ridings like Saskatoon Eastview (won by Matt Love by 2,030 votes), Regina Mount Royal (won by Trent Wotherspoon by 2,164 votes) and the new Regina Albert South (won by Aleana Young by a whopping 2,773 votes).
In fact, the NDP emerged from this election with something it didn’t have after the 2020 vote: solid seats and a few seats that should be a virtual lock for them next time.
The solid wins include Love’s and Wotherspoon’s seats, plus Saskatoon Riversdale (1,506 votes, a gain), Saskatoon Centre, (1,573 votes), Regina Walsh Acres (1,627 votes), Saskatoon Meewasin (1,677 votes), Regina Elphinstone (1,851 votes) and Regina Douglas Park (2,196 votes).
The NDP won three seats by more than 2,500 votes — a telling number from a Saskatchewan electoral history perspective. Out of every Saskatchewan election and byelection ever held, on only six occasions has a party lost a seat it previously won in the last election by more than 2,500 votes.
The NDP’s problem? The Sask. Party had far more solid wins and far, far more wins that make for a virtual lock next time.
After those four close city races, only Yorkton (a 1,239-vote win) was won by the Sask. Party with fewer than 1,500 votes.
But here is the kicker when it comes to that Sask. Party rural stronghold: It won four seats by more than 2,500 votes, nine seats by more than 3,000 votes, seven seats by more than 4,000 votes and one seat by more than 5,000 votes.
That’s 21 Sask. Party seats won by more than 2,500 votes. Perhaps it’s not quite as impressive as the 33 seats the Sask. Party won by more than the 2,500-vote margin in 2020. But it’s still formidable.
For as much ground as the NDP gained on Oct. 28, the Sask. Party base remains intact.
Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
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