for the NY POST
The Islanders quietly own an NHL-high five game point streak, and moved back into a playoff spot with their 5-2 win in Vancouver on Thursday.
They will look to continue their strong play in Seattle on Saturday, in a matchup which oddsmakers are expecting to be a slog.
The Devils made a statement this week with back-to-back regulation wins in Sunrise over the defending champion Panthers.
They face another quality opponent Saturday evening, as they will visit Nikita Kucherov and the Lightning.
I’ll outline my best bets for the pair of matchups below.
New York Islanders vs. Seattle Kraken prediction
In the time since Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech have been sidelined, the Islanders have posted a record of 4-1-2 (4-3 straight-up), and have been a highly profitable team to back in that side as oddsmakers haven’t given much credit to their skeleton lineup.
What’s also interesting is that those games have averaged 6.85 combined goals per game, and have all gone over the betting total.
Before the Canucks game most of those efforts were hard-fought games in which they held somewhat less of the play, but managed to scrape out a point or two.
I’ve been quite favorable to their play in that time, and fully appreciate the organized team game that has allowed them to surprise a number of quality opponents.
Maxim Tsyplakov and Isiah George continue to thrive in larger roles, which has helped to cover up for the other shortages among the roster.
What has been particularly surprising about the Isles’ recent play is the high score-lines of their recent matchups.
They have played a lot of notably high-event teams, but the analytics still suggest that won’t continue moving forward.
Over the last six games, the Islanders have generated 3.17 xGF/60, and allowed 3.25 xGA/60.
A number of those matchups have featured late offensive outbursts, including a number of wild comebacks both for and against in the final 10 minutes of the game.
In time those outbursts likely won’t continue, which should make the totals more accurately reflect their style of play.
The Islanders feature one of the world’s best goaltenders in Ilya Sorokin, who is expected to start Saturday but aren’t offering a ton in the way of truly dynamic offensive skaters.
A total of 5.5 looks pretty low considering Isles’ games have found ways to push past totals of 6 and 6.5 lately, but when you consider the way Seattle plays it makes sense.
The Kraken have generated just 2.80 xGF/60 this month, which is the seventh lowest mark in the league.
They have scored only 3.00 goals per game this year, even while finishing chances at a higher-than-expected rate.
Kraken netminder Joey Daccord has quietly emerged as one of the league’s better starters though, and his play has carried Seattle to a respectable mark of 8-8-1.
In 11 appearances this season, Daccord holds a +6.5 GSAx rating and .918 save %.
I see value backing this matchup to stay under 5.5 goals at -105 (Bet365), and would play anything better than -110.
New Jersey Devils vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
The Devils have struggled to find consistency throughout the early part of coach Sheldon Keefe’s tenure, but are trending in the right direction as they enter this matchup on a 7-2-1 tear.
They hold a +18 goal differential in those matchups, and a 56.75% expected goal share.
If Jacob Markstrom can continue to play the way he did last season with the Flames, their roster holds among the highest upside in the entire league.
Markstrom stopped 34-of-35 shots in the Devils win Tuesday versus the Panthers, and should be able to improve on his -1.0 GSAx moving forward based on his prior dominance.
The Devils feature one of the best 1-2 punches down the middle in the NHL, which is something essentially every Cup-winning roster has in common.
They hold a likely Selke candidate on the top line in Nico Hischier and an elite offensive dynamo in Jack Hughes.
They also feature a deep defensive core, which does a good job of moving the puck up the ice in a hurry and jumping into the attack.
New Jersey’s powerplay has been excellent this season and holds a 30.5% success rate.
As long as Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton are healthy, it should remain one of the league’s better units.
The Lightning came out of an oddly timed week off with a convincing 4-1 victory over the sizzling Winnipeg Jets, but seem to be getting plenty of credit for that performance to be priced evenly in this matchup.
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They will likely remain without top center Brayden Point in this matchup, which leaves a massive hole on the top line.
Over the last ten games, the Lightning have played to an expected goal share of 49.27% and hold a record of 5-4-1.
They were an overvalued betting side in each of the last two seasons, and continue to hold up a ton of value based on the reputation they built with back-to-back cup wins in 2020 and 2021.
Given the way New Jersey has looked of late, this sets up as a good time to back them in a game that is priced as a pick-em at the time of writing.
At -120 or better I see value backing the Devils to continue their strong run of play Saturday.
Best Bet: Devils Moneyline (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.