USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con
Under the Friday night lights, two former Pac-12 rivals will face off as new members of the Big Ten.
Washington (5-5) and UCLA (4-5) enter this game with work to do to reach a bowl game this fall, and the Huskies will hope to halt the Bruins’ current three-game win streak in this matchup.
Washington will also look to defend its 19-game consecutive home winning streak, the longest streak in modern school history.
Who will emerge victorious Friday night? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
UCLA vs. Washington odds
(9 p.m. ET, FOX)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | +4.5 (-110) | +152 | o46.5 (-115) |
| Washington | -4.5 (-110) | -184 | u46.5 (-105) |
UCLA vs. Washington prediction
When UCLA has the ball
After a brutal start to the year, UCLA’s offense is firmly on an upward trajectory.
Quarterback Ethan Garbers has thrown for eight touchdowns to just two interceptions in wins over Rutgers, Nebraska and Iowa.
However, the rubber meets the road in this matchup against an elite Washington pass defense.
The Huskies rank top three in EPA per pass and yards per dropback allowed thanks to a lights-out secondary orchestrated by defensive coordinator Steve Belichick.
Washington’s pass rush has been hit or miss, but UCLA ranks 122nd in pass-blocking and has struggled to keep Garbers upright for much of the year.
I expect UCLA to keep riding a resurgent run game in this contest led by T.J. Harden, who is coming off his best game of the year. He finished with 20 carries for 125 yards against Iowa and should find more success against the Huskies, who rank 108th in defensive line yards and 122nd in stuff rate.
When Washington has the ball
Former Mississippi State transfer quarterback Will Rogers has been a seamless fit in Jedd Fisch’s offense, dicing up defenses with consistent short to intermediate work.
Rogers has been excellent from a clean pocket, ranking sixth in the country in adjusted completion rate, and UCLA ranks 126th in PFF’s pass rush grades.
Overall, the Bruins rank 114th in EPA/pass and 117th in passing success rate allowed. This could be a massive game for redshirt sophomore receiver Denzel Boston, who leads the team with 55 catches for 717 yards and nine touchdowns.
Running back Jonah Coleman will have more difficulty producing in this game against a UCLA run defense that ranks seventh in yards per carry allowed. Last week, the Bruins bottled up Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, one of the most dynamic runners in the country, holding him to just 49 yards on 18 carries.
UCLA vs Washington Pick
I lean towards Washington getting its 20th straight home win here, but I’m not rushing to lay over a field goal in this spot.
The Huskies are a solid moneyline parlay piece with a bigger favorite Saturday, if you want to take that approach.
Instead, I’ll target a player prop in this game and bet on Harden to finish with Over 45.5 rushing yards.
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The Huskies have been soft up front, ranking 132nd in the FBS in havoc rate and 97th in EPA/rush allowed.
Bruins head coach DeShaun Foster is a former running back and wants his run game to lead the way.
With Garbers finding less success against an elite secondary, expect UCLA to employ a balanced approach on the road, leading to another big game for Harden on the ground after averaging more than 3.9 yards after contact in his last two outings.
Best Bet: T.J. Harden Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.