NFL Week 11 picks: Can Bills knock off unbeaten Chiefs? Bengals test Chargers defense

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 8-6 (.571); season 98-54 (.645). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8 (.429); season 82-69-1 (.543). Off: Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers, Giants. Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.

Saquon Barkley gives the Eagles’ offense better balance.

(Emilee Chinn / Associated Press)

Tonight, 5:15. TV: Amazon Prime Video

Line: Eagles by 3½. O/U: 48½.

The Eagles are on a roll, having won five in a row since their off week. Saquon Barkley was a phenomenal acquisition. After three straight wins over bad teams, the Commanders were edged by Pittsburgh.

Pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 21

The young Rams pass rush will be pursuing Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye.

(George Walker IV / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 11 (Fox)

Line: Rams by 4½. O/U: 43½.

Drake Maye is a guy to watch, and the Patriots have won two of their last three. The Rams were embarrassed against the Dolphins and should be able to bounce back, though they aren’t blowing out anybody.

Pick: Rams 24, Patriots 18

Quarterback Russell Wilson has elevated the Steelers offense since he took over as the starter.

(Matt Freed / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)

Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 48½.

The Steelers are making believers of the critics, and Russell Wilson still throws a beautiful deep ball. Baltimore has a ton of weapons, but this isn’t one of those classic Ravens defenses.

Pick: Steelers 27, Ravens 24

Packers quarterback Jordan Love should be well rested after having a week off.

(Mike Roemer / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Packers by 5½. O/U: 40½.

The Packers are fresh after a week off. That gave them some time to self-scout and for Jordan Love to get healthier. After an impressive stretch, Chicago has been a mess three games in a row.

Pick: Packers 24, Bears 13

Lions quarterback Jared Goff had five of his passes intercepted by the Texans last week and Detroit won anyway.

(David J. Phillip / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Lions by 13½. O/U: 47½.

Jared Goff gets picked off five times and the Lions still win? This team believes — and for good reason. There’s always a chance of a letdown, but that’s unlikely at home against a two-win opponent.

Pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 17

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to scramble hurt the Rams last week.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Dolphins by 7½. O/U: 44½.

That was an impressive win at the Rams for Miami. The Raiders will have a tough time keeping pace offensively in this matchup. That said, the Raiders are rested and their pass rush isn’t bad.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Raiders 16

Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston faces his former team in the New Orleans Saints.

(David Richard / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Saints by 1½. O/U: 44½.

Teams that change coaches tend to get a one-week bounce, and the Saints got that last week. Jameis Winston knows this Saints team, which no longer has Marshon Lattimore.

Pick: Browns 20, Saints 17

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) has been turnover prone over the last few weeks.

(Stacy Bengs / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Vikings by 5½. O/U: 40½.

Sam Darnold has had five interceptions in the last two games, even though his Vikings have held on to win. Fortunately for Minnesota, the Titans can’t score and their defense is on the field too long.

Pick: Vikings 24, Titans 16

The Colts have said quarterback Anthony Richardson will start the rest of the season, injuries permitting.

(Matt Ludtke / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Jets by 3½. O/U: 43½.

Difficult to have any trust in Jets, who were absolutely manhandled by Arizona, but the Colts don’t have much to offer, either — plus, they’re on the road. Home team holds on.

Pick: Jets 17, Colts 16

Can Broncos quarterback Bo Nix produce enough points to beat the Falcons?

(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Broncos by 2½. O/U: 44½.

The Falcons are looking to bounce back after losing to New Orleans, and Denver’s defense is pretty good. Bo Nix is having a solid season and Denver keeps this one close. Atlanta hangs on.

Pick: Falcons 21, Broncos 17

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey should get more playing time after his return from injury last week.

(Matt York / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: 49ers by 6½. O/U: 49½.

This is around the time of year the 49ers really fire their engines and start stacking wins. Christian McCaffrey is poised to truly resurface. Rested Seahawks keep this close.

Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23

The Bills’ Josh Allen will attempt to become the first quarterback to beat the Chiefs this season.

(Doug Murray / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)

Line: Bills by 1½. O/U: 46½.

The Chiefs narrowly avoided a home loss to Denver and can’t be overjoyed about their play. Buffalo’s a little more banged up than most. Here’s betting the Bills put a first blemish on that gaudy KC record.

Pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 20

Can Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh motivate his defense to stop the high-powered Bengals offense?

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)

Line: Chargers by 1½. O/U: 46½.

The Chargers are stacking wins and gaining confidence, having scored a season-high 27 in consecutive weeks. The Bengals have been a bit more up and down lately, but they’re desperate.

Pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 23

Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush, shown looking for the football after fumbling against the Eagles last week, had an awful performance in his first start of the season.

(Jeffrey McWhorter / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Channel 7 (ABC), ESPN

Line: Texans by 7½. O/U: 42½.

The Texans take advantage of their in-state rivals. When else are they going to catch the Cowboys with a bunch of guys hurt and Cooper Rush at quarterback? Dallas will have a tough time scoring.

Pick: Texans 26, Cowboys 13