Stephen Yang
New York state’s population could plummet by more than 2 million people by 2050 – a drop of more than 13%, a shocking new study claims.
The population is projected to shrink markedly because of lower birth rates and aging and dying residents not being offset by new domestic or foreign arrivals, according to the report from researchers at the Cornell University School of Public Policy’s Program on Applied Demographics.
“The projections confirm what we have been seeing for some time, which is that if the demographic trends in the state do not change, its population will continue to decline,” said lead analyst Jan Vink in a story that first appeared Wednesday in the Cornell Chronicle.
“Conservative estimates suggest a population decrease of 1 million by 2050, but we think an even greater decline is more likely.”
The study says the population could fall from 19.7 million to under approximately 17 million by 2050.
The analysis estimates that the number of children from birth to age 17 will fall between 10% and 25% over the coming 25 years amid a decline in the birthrate.
New York particularly suffered a loss of population during and following the COVID-19 pandemic, with massive deaths and others fleeing the infection-ravaged state.
The ramifications of population loss are serious.
New York could lose clout in the US Congress, by ceding House seats to states whose populations are growing, such as Florida and Texas.
The researchers plan to provide specific county-by-county population projections next spring.
Domestic migration flows are the biggest driver of population change in New York but also hardest to project, Vink said.
One thing is clear: the long term trend is more New Yorkers have been moving out of the state than people moving in from other parts of the country.
Historically, immigrants arriving from foreign countries have offset the domestic outflow, particularly in the New York City region.
There are caveats.
The massive recent arrival of tens of thousands of immigrants has not been integrated in the estimates, researchers said.
Meanwhile, incoming President Donald Trump’s vow to tighten the border and deport thousands of immigrants could also impact the flow of immigrants.