Robert Sabo for NY Post
The Week 10 Sunday slate kicks off early with a game between the Panthers and Giants in Germany.
We keep it rolling throughout the day with tons of high-profile games and I’m back to provide my favorite player props on the board.
I went 2-1 on my picks in this column last week, bringing my season record in this column to 20-5.
Overall, I’m 78-53 on player props this season for 29.76 units of profit.
Malik Nabers Over 72.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Welcome to Malik Nabers feast week.
The Carolina Panthers have a horrendous pass defense that ranks 31st by DVOA and EPA, and I expect Nabers to take full advantage.
Chris Olave suffered an unfortunate concussion on the second drive last week, but before that, the Panthers had allowed five straight WR1s to clear the over on this prop.
According to ESPN’s tracking data, Nabers leads the NFL with an absurd open score of 99 — the next-closest wide receiver is at 84. The rookie is operating on a different plane of existence this season.
The issue has been an underperforming offensive line and Daniel Jones’ wavering accuracy, but that should be less of a problem this week.
The Panthers rank dead last in pressure rate this season, and Nabers has feasted when Jones is kept clean in the pocket. When not facing pressure, Nabers has an incredible 44% target per route run rate and 3.12 yards per route run rate.
Nabers is also due for some positive regression on deep passes — he ranks third in the NFL with 17 deep targets but has only caught three of them.
The Panthers rank 27th in DVOA against deep passes, so that regression should hit this week in Germany.
Javonte Williams longest rush Under 10.5 yards (-105, Bet365)
I backed Javonte Williams to go under this number last week against the Ravens, and I’ll go right back to it here.
The Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the league this season. Per FTN, they rank first in adjusted line yards allowed to running backs and second in both second-level yards and open field yards allowed.
According to Fantasy Points Data, the Chiefs have allowed the second-lowest explosive rush rate in the NFL and the second-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Meanwhile, Williams ranks 39th out of 47 qualified running backs with a 2.9% explosive rush rate and 42nd with 2.06 yards after contact per attempt.
I don’t expect heavy volume for Williams with the Broncos as seven-point road underdogs, especially with Denver’s coaching staff reportedly wanting to get rookie Audric Estime more involved moving forward.
Williams has gone under this line in four of five games this season with 12 or fewer rushing attempts.
Najee Harris Over 63.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
After a tough start to the season, Najee Harris has been on fire lately, clearing 100-plus rushing yards in three straight games.
Since Week 6, he ranks second among 40 qualified running backs with 3.56 yards after contact per attempt and 0.37 missed tackles forced per attempt, according to Fantasy Points Data.
This week, Harris faces the Commanders, who rank 28th in rushing success rate allowed. The Washington pass defense has drastically improved under Dan Quinn’s leadership, but the run defense remains highly vulnerable.
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Pittsburgh ranks second in the league with a 52.7% rush play rate, which won’t change here.
Washington is especially vulnerable against man-gap scheme runs, allowing the most yards per carry (6.17) and fourth-highest success rate (57%) in the NFL. Harris is averaging 6.14 YPC and a 59.1% success rate on man-gap scheme runs since Week 6, the sixth-best marks in the NFL.
Cordarelle Patterson is back this week, which is buying us some value on the line, but I still see the absolute floor for Harris as 14-plus attempts in this game, which he’s hit in all but one game this season.
If he’s getting that volume, it’s hard not to project him going over this number, given the ideal matchup.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether or not numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_bets)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.