Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Midweek MACtion is back!
After two games on Tuesday night, that fun continues Wednesday with two more matchups to dissect and bet on.
That includes Western Michigan, undefeated in conference play, hosting Northern Illinois in a fascinating matchup.
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan
Western Michigan has had a surprisingly strong season, leading the MAC with a 4-0 conference record.
After the Broncos went 4-8 last year, coach Lance Taylor has led a resurgence in Kalamazoo.
However, the Broncos have undoubtedly benefitted from some positive turnover variance — they posted a +9 turnover margin in their four MAC wins.
On the other side of the variance coin comes Northern Illinois, which has lost four of its six games since a massive upset win over Notre Dame.
However, each of the Huskies’ four losses has come by one possession, and they outgained their opponents by nearly 400 total yards over those four games.
I believe it’s time to buy the dip on the Huskies, especially as the offense has gotten healthier.
Quarterback Ethan Hampton, running back Antario Brown, and wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph are all back in the lineup after missing time earlier this season and should be able to take advantage of a Western Michigan defense that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in EPA per play and success rate allowed.
Last week, the Broncos allowed an Akron offense that ranks 123rd in EPA per play to generate over 500 yards of total offense.
The Western Michigan attack is excellent, led by a dominant offensive line and potent backfield.
Old Dominion transfer quarterback Hayden Wolff has also been stellar, with 15 touchdown passes versus three interceptions.
However, Northern Illinois has by far the best defense the Broncos have seen in conference play, ranking sixth nationally in success rate allowed and 15th in available yards allowed.
The betting line in this game is telling, with the Huskies installed as road favorites despite each of the teams’ records in recent games.
Thanks to a much healthier offense and excellent defense, I’m backing Northern Illinois to get back on track with a win.
Recommendation: Northern Illinois moneyline (-125, BetMGM).
Ohio at Kent State
Kent State has had an awful season, ranking dead last in the FBS in net EPA per play.
The Golden Flashes are down to their third-string quarterback, putting him behind a horrid offensive line.
Tommy Ulatowski has been pressured on a whopping 54.7% of his dropbacks, while Kent State has averaged a nationwide-low 2.4 yards per carry.
However, I don’t want to back the Bobcats as big favorites.
They rank sub-100th nationally in EPA per play and recently lost superstar running back Anthony Tyus to injury.
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Parker Navarro has performed better than I expected at quarterback.
Still, the drop-off from Kurtis Rourke has been notable as the former Ohio quarterback has led Indiana to an undefeated record.
Due to both offenses’ struggles this season, I lean toward the Under.
Ohio’s defense will be the best unit on the field, ranking 33rd in EPA per rush allowed and 37th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed.
Also, keep an eye on the weather in Kent, as wind and rain could play a factor here.
Recommendation: Lean Under 52.5 (-114, FanDuel).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.