Hurricane Rafael rapidly strengthened to a powerful Category 3 storm Wednesday afternoon — as it churned towards western Cuba on a path that could threaten US states along the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days, forecasters said.
The wild late-season storm — which intensified by 50 mph over just 24 hours to 115 mph — was less than 85 miles from the island and expected to make landfall at around 3 p.m. Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane is forecast to grow even stronger before pounding Cuba but then weaken as it crosses land, forecasters said.
It will likely then emerge in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico — not far from the Florida Keys — Wednesday night, still swirling at “hurricane strength,” forecasters said.
“Rafael is expected to make landfall in western Cuba this afternoon,” the NHC said in its 1 p.m. advisory Wednesday. “Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.”
The storm is forecast to wallop Cuba as the first Category 3 hurricane to hit the country since Hurricane Ian in September 2022. In October, Hurricane Oscar — a Category 1 storm — struck the island, killing at least 6 people.
Rafael churned through western Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon but there reported no deaths or injuries despite the heavy rain. It then moved through portions of the Cayman Islands Wednesday morning.
Rafael could is the fifth “major hurricane” — defined as being a Category 3 or stronger — of the 2024 season and the strongest to hit the northwestern Caribbean in the month of November since 2009, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Heavy rainfall is forecast in Western Caribbean, including across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, through Thursday, according to the NHC.
The storm’s path will take it past the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will threaten the US and possibly make landfall somewhere between Texas and the Florida panhandle over the weekend or early next week.