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The Islanders and Rangers will renew their rivalry for the first time this season on Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden.
The Rangers took three of four in last year’s season series, but excluding shootout and 3-on-3 goals, they held just a one-goal edge in goal differential.
The Rangers looked to be a more well rounded side in the early going of this season compared to the last several seasons where they had often been too reliant on elite special teams play and otherworldly goaltending from Igor Shesterkin.
It’s hard to nitpick a Presidents’ Trophy-winning team that has started 7-2-1, but the Rangers’ defensive play has started to slip of late.
Over the last five games, they have allowed 4.32 xGA/60 and a total of 34.78 shots against per hour of play. They have been outshot by 50 in their last two matchups.
Rangers coach Peter Laviolette seems to be aware that despite another winning result Friday, his teams play has not entirely been up to snuff. Laviolette opted to make significant changes to his offensive and defensive lines at practice Saturday.
The most notable one being Mika Zibanejad moving into Vincent Trocheck’s role centering the top line alongside Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere.
While the Rangers’ former top line had been excellent, Laviolette is likely hoping to spark Zibanejad, who has struggled mightily in the early going of this season.
Offense has been very hard to come by for coach Patrick Roy’s Isles’ side, as they have scored just 2.27 goals per game. Friday’s 4-3 win marked the first time they had scored four goals in regulation since October 14th, and they did it without superstar forward Mathew Barzal, who is the team’s top offensive play-driver by some margin.
Isles general manager Lou Lamoreillo announced Saturday that Barzal, as well as defender Ryan Pelech, are expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks.
While the Islanders have struggled mightily to generate offense, they have been a better than average side defensively.
They have allowed just 2.90 goals against per game this season, and hold the leagues ninth best xGA/60 rating of 2.91.
Ilya Sorokin has been true to form with a .928 save percentage and 2.00 GAA in his first six appearances of the season, and has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup.
It’s possible the Rangers will opt to hand this start to backup Jonathan Quick, as Shesterkin has started the last two games and faced 87 shots.
In two starts this season Quick has played to a .953 save percentage and a +2.6 GSAx rating.
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Based on the way the last two games have gone, it’s safe to say that Laviolette will be stressing a sharper defensive game to his team entering this matchup.
The Islanders provide a great matchup for the Rangers to allow less quality chances and stabilize from a defensive perspective.
The Isles have shown well defensively themselves though, and are offering a world class net-minder of their own with Sorokin.
Both teams should be up for this matchup, and it seems logical to expect a highly competitive, tight-checking matchup.
The Rangers would be my lean in terms of a side at their current price of -180, but I see most value backing the game to stay under 6 goals at -125 or better.
THE PLAY: Under 6 Goals (-115, BetMGM)
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Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.