Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump looks to make it 2016 all over again in Michigan, scoring a win despite Democratic dominance elsewhere in the state.
The latest Emerson College survey shows the 45th president ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time in this poll since July, when the vice president entered the race amid hosannas and uncritical coverage from the corporate press.
Trump, who defeated Hillary Clinton by just 0.2 points in 2016, is on track to win 49% to 48%, per the survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted between Oct. 25 and 27.
The split extends to favorability numbers, where the once and perhaps future GOP president is slightly ahead of Harris.
Trump is treading water, with 50% liking him and 50% disliking him, while Harris is 49% favorable and 51% unfavorable.
The economy appears to be the winning issue for Trump amid an affordability crisis challenging Michiganders just as it is everyone else on the swing-state map.
A full 48% of Wolverine State voters identify dollars and cents as their dominant issue, and of that hunk of the electoral pie, 63% back Trump, while an anemic 33% trust Harris to fix the problems the Joe Biden administration she’s served for four years caused.
Immigration is another issue driving voters into the GOP column.
Of the 9% who pinpoint the porous border as their primary consideration when casting a ballot, a staggering 96% prefer Trump to the California Democrat who donned the border-czar cloak until her failures in that role proved politically inconvenient.
Though Harris may be running from the border crisis the Biden team didn’t address, voters aren’t letting her get away with it.
One compelling split in the data involves union voters, where the VP’s strength is clear but offset by those laborers who don’t enjoy the prerogatives of politically active and mobilized labor groups.
“The survey finds the important voting block of Michigan union household voters breaking for Harris, 55% to 41%, while non-union household members break for Trump, 52% to 46%,” notes Spencer Kimball, Emerson’s polling director, in discussing the findings.
Though Trump is ahead of Harris here, albeit in a photo-finish fashion suggesting Michigan reporters will be watching the vote count closely next week, the polling has less positive news for GOP Senate hopeful Mike Rogers.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin narrowly leads the former Republican congressman in the race to replace outgoing Democrat Debbie Stabenow, 48% to 46%.
Unaligned voters are splitting their tickets.
“While independent voters slightly break for Trump on the presidential ballot 47% to 45%, in the U.S. Senate race they support Slotkin 49% to 40%,” Kimball contends.