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The Cowboys and 49ers continue one of the NFL’s best rivalries when the teams meet Sunday night.
The 49ers have won three straight in the series since 2022, pushing their overall mark against Dallas to 20-19-1.
Nevertheless, Sunday night’s matchup will take on a different look because of key injuries for both teams.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and make a prediction and pick.
When the Cowboys have the ball
There might not be a team that needed a bye week more than the Cowboys, after their embarrassing 47-9 loss at the hands of the Lions in Week 6.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb haven’t been on the same page this season, and Troy Aikman criticized Lamb’s body language and “lazy” route-running.
Expect an invigorated effort from the passing game off the bye.
Last year, Prescott came off Dallas’ bye week and threw for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns in a reworked offense against the Rams.
This is a difficult matchup for the Cowboys’ offense against the NFL’s third-ranked pass-defense DVOA.
Nevertheless, I’m still comfortable backing Prescott to bounce back after a brutal outing against Detroit.
The continued emergence of Jalen Tolbert is key for the Dallas offense. He has 40-plus receiving yards in four of his past five games.
Rico Dowdle’s snaps have also increased at running back, and in addition to providing a more dynamic rushing threat than Ezekiel Elliott, he’s also a far more explosive receiver.
He caught five passes for 30 yards against the Lions before the bye.
When the 49ers have the ball
Brock Purdy has had a rocky start to the season, and Christian McCaffrey’s extended stay on IR has presented enormous issues for the offense.
Now, Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year with a torn ACL, and Deebo Samuel is questionable after being hospitalized earlier in the week with pneumonia.
Even if he does play, it’s tough to bank on him being 100 percent.
I was hoping the Cowboys would get back Micah Parsons or DaRon Bland for this matchup, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case.
Nevertheless, there’s a chance veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks returns, which would be huge for defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s group.
The Cowboys have had a dreadful start to the season defensively, ranking 29th in DVOA, but I’m not confident this injured 49ers’ group can take full advantage.
Final verdict
I expect the Cowboys to have an excellent game plan coming off the bye week, especially given Mike McCarthy’s track record with extra time to prepare.
McCarthy has gone 38-23-3 against the spread (62 percent) as a head coach with extended rest, including 13-5 ATS (72 percent) with the Cowboys.
Meanwhile, Dak Prescott has gone 18-6 ATS (75 percent) on extended rest in his career, covering the spread by 5.9 points per game.
It’s worth noting the Cowboys also have a significant special teams edge.
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Dallas ranks first in special teams DVOA, while San Francisco ranks 31st.
Brandon Aubrey is the best kicker in the NFL this season (assuming he’s not on jury duty), and the 49ers are down to their third-string kicker.
Anders Carlson made just 82 percent of his field goals and 87 percent of his extra points in Green Bay last year.
The last time these teams met, the 49ers won, 42-10, and George Kittle was fined for wearing a “F— Dallas” T-shirt.
The Cowboys have all the motivation to exact revenge on their rival, and as the healthier and more rested team, I’m backing Dallas as a road underdog.
Recommendation: Cowboys +4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.