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One of the major tenets of football handicapping — perhaps the biggest one — is the notion of buying low and selling high.
When teams are slumping or dealing with key injuries, the lines typically go a few points in the other direction and leave a little value on that side.
For instance, let’s look at the bottom feeders in Week 8. The 1-6 Browns are getting nine points at home against the Ravens. The 1-5 Titans are +11.5 at the Lions. The 1-6 Panthers are catching 10 at Denver. Among the two-win teams, the Rams were +3 at home vs. the Vikings on Thursday night, the Jaguars are +4 at home to the Packers, and the others — Giants, Raiders and Saints — are underdogs by 6.5 points or more.
The one game that goes against this grain is Jets at Patriots. Yes, the Patriots are 1-6, and it’s not unusual they would be a touchdown underdog at home. But it’s odd that the Jets would be favored by that much considering they have a 2-5 record, are on a four-game losing streak and have so many injuries they couldn’t conduct a practice Wednesday.
One of those injuries — three of them, actually (ankle, knee, hamstring) — belongs to the most important Jet: Aaron Rodgers.
This point spread does fit the narrative of the season, though. The arrival of Rodgers with a quality supporting cast of receivers and running backs, and a revamped offensive line was supposed to send them right to the Super Bowl. Never mind the intermediate goals of a winning season or a playoff berth. Congrats to those who didn’t buy that pie in the sky.
Yes, the Jets beat the Patriots, 24-3, in Week 3, and they certainly are capable of coming out of Foxborough with a two-score margin of victory.
But I can’t get away from the idea that there’s no way the Jets in this state should be a touchdown road favorite against anyone. So I’m riding with rookie QB Drake Maye and the Patriots in what should be a hard watch in New England.
The pick: Patriots +7
Baltimore Ravens (-9) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
I’m a little tempted to take the bushel of points with the Browns as they turn to Jameis Winston. He’s been an interception machine in the past but is also capable of putting up points. It’s a short week and back-to-back road games for the Ravens, but the Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry-Rashod Bateman trio is looking mighty unstoppable these days.
Indianapolis Colts (+5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans have only one win by more than a touchdown this season, and in the opener they defeated the Colts, 29-27, in Indianapolis. C.J. Stroud threw for just 86 yards in last week’s 24-22 loss at Green Bay. If the Texans are to get it done here, it likely will be their normal nail-biter that comes down to a field goal at the end.
Tennessee Titans (+11.5) over DETROIT LIONS
It’s easy to remember the Lions’ 47-9 destruction of Dallas two weeks ago and want to stay out of their way. Three of their other wins, though, have been by six or fewer points. The Titans are not a dynamic team, but they have the offensive line and enough sandpaper on defense to at least make this difficult on Detroit.
Green Bay Packers (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars have won two of their past three games and now come back home after a two-week residency in London. Though they’re not the mess they were earlier in the season, I’m figuring they’ll have a problems stopping Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs and the Packers receivers.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Both offenses are back to optimum health, and this should be the game of the day in the early window. Though much of the focus will be on the likes of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley and A.J Brown, it’s the Eagles defense that could make the difference. It’s allowing 11.75 ppg over the past four games.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
I’ve been a Bucs backer this season, but this situation is brutal for them. They’re on a short week after a Monday night loss to the Ravens in which both top receivers — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — went down. It will take Baker Mayfield some time to get in sync with the replacements. Better to roll with Kirk Cousins & Co.
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Tua Tagovailoa is on the road back to potentially playing Sunday, a month and a half after his latest scary concussion. It was reported he looked sharp in practice Wednesday, and his presence would definitely lift the Dolphins’ spirits. Still, with all of the uncertainty, it seems like a better move to take the points with Kyler Murray and watch what happens.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-7.5) over New Orleans Saints
Though I’m normally not interested in giving more than a touchdown with Jim Harbaugh’s three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-granulated-tire-rubber offense, I can’t justify any kind of backing of the decimated Saints, who are likely to start Spencer Rattler again in an offense that lists six players as questionable.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+3) over Buffalo Bills
The Seahawks have scored at least 20 points in each of their first seven games and have enough weapons off the bench to function if Kenneth Walker III and DK Metcalf can’t go or are limited. This is the Bills’ fifth road trip in seven weeks, and it’s a long one.
DENVER BRONCOS (-10) over Carolina Panthers
I didn’t think I’d be willing to give double digits with rookie QB Bo Nix so soon. What’s the alternative, though? The Panthers have given up at least 34 points in each of their past four games, and now have to deal with the altitude and re-insert benched QB Bryce Young after Andy Dalton suffered a thumb injury in a car accident.
Chicago Bears (-2.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
The Commanders have been a revelation with rookie Jayden Daniels at quarterback. He lifted the offense and the entire team. He left last week’s rout of the Panthers with a rib injury and might have to watch Marcus Mariota on Sunday. The Bears are another team that’s stronger than many thought they’d be, and they are coming in off a bye to give Caleb Williams time to process it all.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+9.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have a lot of injuries at wide receiver. Skyy Moore is now out, and even newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins arrives listed as questionable (lower leg). They’ve won by double digits the past two weeks but before those had four wins of seven points or less. At 6-0, the urgency to beat the Raiders by double digits might be lacking.
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Dallas Cowboys (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The Cowboys have had two full weeks to stew and hear how terrible they are after their 47-9 loss to the Lions. Figuring this will at least be their best effort of the season. Niners are dealing with a lot of injuries to their skill position players and Nick Bosa.
Monday
New York Giants (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Giants managed just 10 total points in home losses to the Bengals and Eagles. Still, near-touchdown road underdogs during bad times is a situation which the Giants have thrived in Brian Daboll’s tenure.
Best bets: Falcons, Chargers, Broncos
Lock of the week: Falcons, (Locks 3-4 in 2024)
Last week: 10-5 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
Thursday: Vikings (L)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.