USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con
Football handicapper Sean Treppedi is in his first season in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Tua Tagovailoa is back, and this line suggests the market is as lost evaluating his impact as the Dolphins have been without him.
We all agree Miami’s offense can cook when Tagovailoa is jiving with his receivers, but I don’t expect his first game back to magically resurrect an operation that is dead-last in offensive EPA per play.
While Tagovailoa shakes off the month-long rust, Kyler Murray opposes him having thrived as a road underdog — he’s 18-7-2, the sixth-best record since 2003.
Though it’s historically tough to trust Murray after a win, remember Miami letting the dysfunctional Titans come to South Beach and post 31 points.
The Dolphins also have yet to cover in three home games, and with a spread set at a field goal, note that Arizona’s kickers are 20.9 percent more accurate than Miami’s.
Indianapolis Colts-HOUSTON TEXANS Under 46.5
We can officially hold our horses on the Colts offense — and Anthony Richardson.
It’s made for a middle-of-the-pack standing in offensive DVOA and produces negative value in EPA per play.
Last week, Richardson achieved zero touchdowns, fumbled and finished with a 59.2 passer rating in spite of a mundane 16-10 victory in which the Colts still accrued 50 fewer yards than the Dolphins.
Richardson is the only quarterback who’s completed less than 50 percent of his pass attempts (minimum 25).
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He will take these doldrums into Houston to face a blitz-happy Texans defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per play, the second-fewest overall, and ranks second in defensive DVOA.
Nico Collins’ absence was evident in C.J. Stroud’s 86 total passing yards against Green Bay.
All things considered, the Colts and Texans share a combined 5-9-0 record on Over/Unders.
Last week: 1-1. Seahawks (W), 49ers (L)
Season: 7-7.