Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Everyone knows Michigan can’t throw the ball. The Wolverines are overly reliant on their rushing attack.
Though Michigan State’s secondary is super vulnerable, Jonathan Smith has reformed Sparty’s front seven, which ranks 26th in college football in rush success rate allowed.
This is a fantastic matchup for Michigan State’s defense
I also think this transfer-laden offense is slowly improving under the first-year head coach.
Aidan Chiles and Co. dropped 32 points on a 51 percent success rate (89th percentile single-game performance) against Iowa’s ever-elite defense last week.
Smith-led teams are 16-7 against the spread as road underdogs of more than a field goal, covering by more than six points per game on average.
His Spartans will keep it close — if they don’t win outright.
Pick: Michigan State +5.5.
OREGON (-21.5) over Illinois
Are we sure the 6-1 Illini are good? They’ve posted a minus-0.7 percent Net Success Rate.
Illinois has been gashed on the ground (114th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed), which doesn’t bode well in this matchup with a continually improving Jordan James — Oregon’s lead back has piled up more than 430 yards at 5.6 yards per carry over the past four weeks.
Illinois can’t run the ball (70th in EPA per rush), so they’ll be forced to lean on Luke Altmyer’s arm.
The Illinois quarterback is due for some turnover regression (nine turnover-worthy throws to only one interception), which should come against a ball-hawking Oregon secondary that ranks third in PFF’s coverage grades and 14th in passes defended.
We know the No. 1-ranked Ducks are good.
A stark comparison point for this matchup: Oregon blanked a Purdue team that dropped 49 on Illinois the prior week.
I smell a blowout. It’s time for the Bret Bielema Ponzi Scheme to come crashing down.
Kansas (+10) over KANSAS STATE
Though I hate this wager from a schematic perspective, the Jayhawks are crazily undervalued.
They’re 2-5 with a plus-45 point differential. Kansas is not as bad as its 2-5 record indicates.
Kansas State’s rush attack is dangerous, but I’m continually underwhelmed by Avery Johnson, who’s amassed eight big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays despite his 14-5 touchdown-interception ratio.
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After a brutal start to the season (two big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays over the first three weeks), Jalon Daniels is settling in (eight big-time throws to four turnover-worthy plays since).
He was sensational against Houston last week.
The spread is overinflated in this rivalry game.
Last week: 2-1. Georgia (W), Kentucky (L), Michigan State (W)
Season: 12-11.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.