AP
The Pittsburgh Panthers are 6-0? Since when?
They’ve pulled out some wild wins this year behind up-and-coming quarterback Eli Holstein and a potent, balanced offensive attack.
But the 5-1 Syracuse Orange are no joke. Their 44-41 win over UNLV was among college football’s best wins this season.
Read on for my Syracuse vs Pittsburgh predictions and college football best bets for Thursday’s prime-time ACC matchup (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | +5.5 (-110) | +170 | Over 62 (-112) |
| Pitt | -5.5 (-110) | -205 | Under 62 (-108) |
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh prediction
I think the Panthers are due to drop a game. They needed a 14-point fourth-quarter comeback to down Cincinnati and a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback to sneak past West Virginia.
The offense was abhorrent last week against Cal, where they won in a 17-15 grinder despite running 21 fewer plays and gaining 23 fewer yards.
However, there’s also a lot to like about the Panthers. They’re rushing attack is dangerous (fourth in EPA per Rush) behind top back Desmond Reid (496 yards, 6.3 YPC) and Holstein’s dual-threat ability (350 yards, 7.6 YPC).
Their front seven has been stout against the rush (10th in EPA per Rush allowed) and they rank top 50 nationally in Havoc and PFF’s Pass Rush grades.
But their secondary is a glaring weakness. The corners are getting gashed. Ryland Gandy and Rashad Battle have allowed 37 receptions on 61 targets (61% completion) for nearly 500 yards (8.2 yards per target).
They’ve been consistently targeted deep downfield, with Gandy allowing an 18.7-yard average depth of target. Pitt ranks 120th nationally in EPA per Pass and Pass Explosiveness allowed.
While Syracuse’s overall resume is up for debate, Kyle McCord is shining in northern New York, ranking among the top 15 qualified FBS quarterbacks in EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate. He’s already amassed more than 2,100 yards through six games and leads the nation in Big-Time Throws with 21.
Jackson Meeks and Trebor Pena have established themselves as half-decent wideouts. Meeks is averaging an explosive 2.5 yards per route run, but it’s worth mentioning that Pena is listed as questionable on the injury report.
Tight end Oronde Gadsen is a unit out of the slot – those McCord-to-Gadsen seam routes remind me of old Brady-to-Gronk passing concepts.
Syracuse’s pro-style offense is cooking, ranking 11th nationally in EPA per Pass and 13th in Pass Success Rate. The Orange should move the ball against Pitt’s exploitable defensive backfield.
On defense, Syracuse has struggled without linebacker Marlowe Wax. The front seven is weak, so the Orange have been bullied on the ground.
Defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson has been doing his best to keep everything in front of him – the Orange rank 51st nationally in Explosiveness allowed but 113th in Success Rate allowed.
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While Pitt should move the ball consistently on the ground, I think Holstein’s carelessness will come back to bite him. He’s fumbled the ball five times, yet the Panthers have recovered four.
Throw in his 12 turnover-worthy passes to only five interceptions, and the Panthers are due for some major turnover regression.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh pick
I think the Panthers are overvalued and worth fading. But, at the minimum, McCord and Gadsen should move the ball, score often and keep the game close for 60 minutes.
My numbers project Syracuse closer to +4.5 than +5.5, so I’m willing to bet on the Orange at +5 or better.
Best bet: Syracuse +5.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.