Any NDP win in rural Saskatchewan where it hasn’t held more than four seats since 1995 would be historic.
If the NDP were to form government, it would need to re-elect all of its current 14 MLAs and pick up 17 more seats to get the slimmest 31-seat majority in the province’s 61-seat legislature.
The “closest” 17 wins by the Sask. Party in 2020 were still won by an average of 1,432 votes.
Moreover, the NDP would also have to recapture suburban city and bedroom seats — some areas in which Sask. Party candidates enjoyed pluralities in 2020 that were similar to its rural seats.
But it also seems the NDP has the potential to pick up a lot more seats in the 2024 election because of two important developments:
- First, an Insightrix Research poll conducted for CTV news between Oct. 18 and 20 (two to four days after the leaders’ debate) suggests the NDP is now ahead by five percentage points among decided voters with 50 per cent, compared to 45 per cent for the Sask. Party. One should be cautious with any single poll, but it’s worth noting that the polls have been better for the NDP and that this is the first time since 2007 that any poll has shown the NDP ahead during a Saskatchewan general election campaign.
- Second, while the new electoral boundary map has been criticized because rural seats generally have smaller voting populations than urban ones (all 61 seats are, plus or minus, within five per cent of the provincial average number of voters), this is an electoral map that’s actually much better for the NDP.
So what does all this mean when it comes to the NDP remaining at its status quo of 14 seat against a large majority Sask. Party government, emerging with a sizable Opposition or pulling off a seat? Well, what happens in some key seats may provide some answers:
Saskatoon Stonebridge: Bronwyn Eyre won Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota by a whopping 4,501 votes in 2020, but she has lost her rural polls to the new riding of Dakota-Arm River. Here, the new boundaries map works in the NDP’s favour, as Eyre would only be 67 votes ahead if last election’s results were transposed on to this new riding. Losing both the controversial justice minister and a now fully urban seat would be felt by the Sask. Party. But it still might not mean much more than a larger NDP Opposition.
Regina Wascana-Plains: It was at candidate Christine Tell’s campaign headquarters that Moe announced last week his new “No. 1 priority” of ensuring “biological boys” are not allowed in girls’ school change rooms — which many saw as a wedge issue to keep the Sask. Party from losing votes to other parties on the right. Tell faces two right-wing party opponents in this riding. (There are only a total of 15 SUP, PC or Buffalo candidates running in the cities.) While 2020 saw an easy 3,590-vote win in Regina Wascana, the loss of bedroom community territory means the 2020 numbers would produce a 1,000-vote win for the SP — healthy, but less secure.
Saskatchewan Rivers: If SUP is able to maintain a presence, it needs to win at least one seat, and incumbent and former Sask. Party MLA Nadine Wilson seems to have a far better chance than SUP Leader Jon Hromek in Lumsden-Morse. However, if the SUP and the Sask. Party split the vote here, the NDP candidate could come up the middle.
Regina Northeast, Regina University, Regina Pasqua, Regina South Albert, Saskatoon Riversdale, Saskatoon Westview, Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood, Moose Jaw Wakamow, Prince Albert Northcote: These are all absolute must-gains for the NDP. To lose any single one of them blows up any remote chance the NDP has of forming government, and failing to elect Aleana Young in South Albert might suggest this party has again stalled.
However, there is significant potential for NDP gains with some of these seats not having Sask. Party incumbents or incumbents like Muhamad Fiaz (Pasqua), Alana Ross (Northcote), Lisa Lambert (Churchill Wildwood) and David Buckingham (Westview) who have been lower-profile backbenchers. Finally, the NDP could surely claim it did make strides this election if Regina University candidate Sally Housser knocks off popular cabinet minister Gene Makowsky.
The Battlefords, Meadow Lake, Yorkton, Last Mountain-Touchwood: If the NDP is to make a serious run at government, it likely needs to win rural seats. Knocking off Sask. Party candidates Jeremy Cockrill (The Battlefords) or Jeremy Harrison (Meadow Lake) seems more of an NDP pipe dream.
However, party leaders have been making stops in Yorkton, suggesting that they may think Greg Ottenbreit’s seat is in play. And the NDP is optimistic about returning candidate Thera Nordal (especially after she received an endorsement from the riding’s former Sask. Party MLA Glen Hart).
The Regina Leader-Post has created an Afternoon Headlines newsletter that can be delivered daily to your inbox so you are up to date with the most vital news of the day. Click here to subscribe.
With some online platforms blocking access to the journalism upon which you depend, our website is your destination for up-to-the-minute news, so make sure to bookmark leaderpost.com and sign up for our newsletters so we can keep you informed. Click here to subscribe.