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For the first time in 43 years, the Dodgers and Yankees are set to square off in a World Series matchup of true heavyweights.
They entered the season as favorites to win their respective pennants, and they got there by finishing with their league’s best records.
This marks the first time that five former MVP winners will play in the same World Series. That leaves plenty of enticing options to win series MVP, and helps us get my favorite bet to win the award at a fairly long number.
Surprisingly enough, Juan Soto (+550, FanDuel) isn’t one of the former MVPs in this series, though he did lose a fairly close vote to Bryce Harper in 2021.
Does the gap in betting prices between Soto in his current form deserve to be that far away from Shohei Ohtani (+220) and Aaron Judge (+500)?
2024 World Series MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | +220 |
| Aaron Judge | +500 |
| Juan Soto | +550 |
| Mookie Betts | +750 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +950 |
| Max Muncy | +1600 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 27/1 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 30/1 |
| Tommy Edman | 33/1 |
| Gerrit Cole | 33/1 |
Soto sent the Yankees to the World Series with one of the more impressive at-bats in recent memory, hitting a three-run homer off of an elite pitcher in Hunter Gaddis.
Throughout the entire postseason, Soto holds an OPS of 1.106 and has slugged .667.
Both of those marks are considerably better than Ohtani and Judge have achieved, and Soto’s process at the plate suggests it has been far more than luck. He holds a hard-hit rate of 70% in the playoffs and an xBA of .367.
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Game 1 of the series will fall on Soto’s 26th birthday, which seems crazy to consider given the reputation he’s already honed for clutch postseason hitting. In 168 career playoff at-bats, Soto has a .906 OPS and a .535 slug rate.
The adage that pitching wins championships will be put to the test with how the Yankees and Dodgers have made their way into the World Series. The Dodgers’ lineup has a wRC+ of 122 in the postseason, while the Yankees hold a mark of 117.
Dodgers pitchers have a 4.36 ERA in their two playoff series and an xFIP of 4.97.
Yankees pitchers have been more effective with a 3.27 ERA and 4.14 xFIP, but those marks are still a far cry from what many recent AL pennant winners have posted, and they have come against offenses that are drastically worse than the Dodgers.
It appears unlikely any pitcher will be able to have the kind of success needed to win MVP in this matchup, especially given how effective both teams have been at stretching out playoff at-bats. Working a lot of innings for any pitcher should prove difficult.
Out of the last 20 World Series MVPs, only three have been pitchers, and it’s hard to imagine this season being one of the outliers where we see a pitcher take home the award.
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That makes me like Soto even more in this market, especially when you consider how soft the Dodgers’ pitching staff is looking.
It almost feels too easy to pick Soto after his incredible play in the ALCS, but at a price of +550 odds, I don’t think it’s a reach to back the hottest batter from either side in this series.
Best bet: Juan Soto to win World Series MVP (FanDuel, +550 | Play to +500)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.