A strangely uninspiring run-on-our-record Sask. Party campaign does now seem to have the governing party scrambling to get out its vote.
A desperate need to get out the vote is a problem the Saskatchewan Party really wasn’t anticipating.
It still might not be all that big a problem for Leader Scott Moe and his party.
So massive is his lead in most of the 29 rural seats — not to mention a few suburban ones — that he and his party shouldn’t have to worry about splitting votes with the 31 Saskatchewan United Party candidates, 16 Buffalo Party candidates and 11 Progressive Conservative candidates running in the 2024 election.
The NDP may have as big a problem with Green Party candidates in 58 ridings.
That said, it seems a less-than-stellar four-year record combined with a strangely uninspiring run-on-our-record Sask. Party campaign does have the governing party scrambling to get out its voters.
Even before Monday, the Sask. Party was running a push poll survey on its Facebook page asking party loyalists how important they felt their civic duty to vote was. (Many of the responses seemed less than encouraging for the Sask. Party.)
That’s standard fare for politicians, but it’s what Moe said that was most interesting: he compared the 2024 Saskatchewan election to the 2015 Alberta election, when the NDP’s Rachel Notley won on a right-wing split. He said that could happen in Martensville.
Really? In Martensville? A riding that was a conservative bedrock for the Sask. Party even before it was the Sask. Party, reaching back to the days of former Progressive Conservative MLA Bill Neudorf?
In fairness, this riding, now called Martensville-Blairmore, takes in a a large swath of Saskatoon’s suburban Blairmore area, so maybe it’s not the Sask. Party slam dunk it once was. But a week before the vote, it should be among the least of Moe’s problems.
And it sure isn’t where one would expect him to be talking about “vote splitting.” There isn’t a Buffalo Party or Saskatchewan United Party candidate in Martensville-Blairmore. Again, there is a Green Party candidate, so shouldn’t vote splitting be a problem for the NDP there?
Might it just be that something else has been happening on the campaign trail since last Wednesday’s leaders’ debate, producing a switch in momentum?
According to a memo labeled “confidential” from the NDP campaign director dated Oct. 20, the party is experiencing an “incredible wave.”
“The energy on the ground is electric … We are now leading in places where we haven’t for decades like Martensville-Blairmore,” said the post-debate memo that went on to suggest the NDP is leading in 27 seats, with another seven seats in play.
Has the NDP that went into this election without a hope in hell really seized momentum?
Well, New Democrats need to pump the brakes a whole lot.
When not fuelled by paranoia, elections run on giddy campaign euphoria. There’s still that little problem of massive rural Sask. Party support, bleeding into the cities.
However, it’s also apparent this Sask. Party campaign doesn’t have the grassroots enthusiasm seen in past campaigns — which is irking the party.
That Moe has become the first Sask. Party leader in more than two decades who felt it necessary to campaign in rural Saskatchewan might say a little about the momentum right now.
In the end, it all may not be as big a deal as it now seems. But right now, the Sask. Party sure does seem desperate to get its vote out.
Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
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