Will Kamala Harris’ campaign ultimately be a casualty of the gender gap?
The latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey of the race in Georgia suggests just that, with the Democrat failing to connect with men and thereby poorly positioned to take home the 16 electoral votes up for grabs in the crucial southern swing state.
The most striking split in support among the 1,000 likely voters the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center polled is among men.
They’re moving to Donald Trump and as far away from the vice president as they can.
Just 28% of men back Harris’ campaign, compared with a whopping 59% who support Trump, a metric that contributes heavily to the former president’s 47% to 43% lead overall.
Harris has only 29% job approval among men against 59% disapproval, further cementing the impression “Dudes for Harris” could have their meetings in phone booths — assuming any are to be found in the Peach State.
The gender gap goes both ways, of course, but it’s much narrower with women. Harris leads 55% to 37% among her own gender, and while that’s significant, it only mitigates the overall margin.
Trump dominates with all age cohorts but the 30- to 44-year-olds, with whom Harris leads by 10. He’s up with 18- to 29-year-olds by 8 points, 45- to 64-year-olds by 10 and a modest 2 with senior citizens.
He also draws near-supermajority support from white voters in the AJC survey, with 66% backing him compared with 28% supporting Harris.
This makes up for his relatively low level of support among black voters in this survey — Harris leads them 74% to 8% with the balance of 18% undecided.
Yet in a measure of how dynamic the race is and how Harris has failed to close the deal with a central Democratic constituency, more black voters are undecided in this survey than they were in September’s effort by the same pollster.
Back then, Harris was up 77% to 11%, with 12% undecided.
Speaking of Democrats, the polling shows some uncertainty about whether Harris will turn her own party out to vote. Though Trump has under a percentage-point support, while Harris has 88%, the 11% of undecided Democrats have to raise alarm bells — especially given 95% of Republicans back Trump, with 1% backing Harris and just 2% undecided.
The polling also finds Republican VP nominee J.D. Vance is closing strong in the state, at least compared with Democrat Tim Walz. The Ohio senator has 41% approval against 39% disapproval; the Minnesota governor is at 38% favorability against 40% unfavorability.
All told, Trump has the vibe of a winner here, with 41% saying he’s likely to prevail in November versus 39% who think Harris will pull it out.