China is overtaking Europe as the top market for Russia’s pipeline gas

Gazprom exports of natural gas to China in the first nine months of the year are up almost 40 per from last year

That compares with 22.5 billion cubic metres of pipeline gas sent to Gazprom’s remaining clients in Europe from January through September, according to calculations based on flows via Ukraine and the TurkStream link.

Gazprom didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the figures.

While Gazprom plans to boost its annual supplies to China by a further 10 billion cubic meters via the so-called Far Eastern route from 2027, that’s still a fraction of what the company sent to Europe before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

As Gazprom’s five-year transit agreement with Ukraine expires in December 2024 and Kyiv has no intention to extend it, around half of the gas flows going to Europe are under risk of being halted.

European officials are holding talks to replace transit flows, with Azerbaijan potentially becoming a solution, but a deal doesn’t seem to be close with less than three months left to run.

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