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It was at the 2019 Sugar Bowl when Georgia and Texas last met, when Sam Ehlinger infamously declared that the Longhorns were “back.”
It is only now, nearly six years later, that the Longhorns finally look superior to the Bulldogs again. For the first time in 50 games, Georgia takes the field as an underdog, having ceded the nation’s No. 1 spot to Texas.
Every meaningful statistic says the Longhorns are better. Every unbiased eye agrees.
Texas is the team to beat. Texas is back.
But it was just a few weeks ago that Alabama screamed the same sentiment. It was at the start of the season that Georgia declared its dominance in a 34-3 win against a Clemson team that has since averaged nearly 50 points per game.
Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs have been unusually inconsistent, but their top gear — also seen when taking a lead at Alabama after trailing 28-0 — can best any team.
Texas can, too, but it has yet to face a legitimate test this season.
The Longhorns’ two toughest opponents (Michigan, Oklahoma) are both experiencing down seasons.
They faced one true freshman quarterback making his first career start. They faced another true freshman making his second career start. They faced three other teams from the Group of Five, becoming the nation’s top-rated defense without facing a single offense ranked among the best 70.
This will change when a coach (Steve Sarkisian) who has never had a top-25 defense faces Georgia’s top-10 passing game.
With a win, Texas won’t just be back, but it will be the clear favorite to win the national championship. Until then, it’s still fair to be hesitant to pick against Georgia (+3.5), which has gone nearly four years without a loss to any team except Alabama.
Boston College (+7) over VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies are 4-6 at home under Brent Pry. In this evenly matched affair, the coach gets another strike for his 1-10 record in games decided by one possession.
PURDUE (+27.5) over Oregon
The Ducks’ remaining schedule is soft enough that they’ve likely already locked up a spot in the Big Ten title game. Oregon (1-3 against the spread as a favorite) won’t have to turn it up to 11 in a de facto bye week.
Oklahoma State (+9.5) over BYU
The Cougars’ takeaway rate (2.6 per game) is unsustainable. The Cowboys’ residence in the Big 12 basement feels the same.
MISSOURI (-4.5) over Auburn
Auburn has topped 14 points in just one of their past four games against Power Four opponents. Is Hugh Freeze permitted to call for help?
Miami (-4.5) over LOUISVILLE
Cam Ward can’t do it alone, but the Hurricanes should be ready after back-to-back near-upsets and a bye week.
CLEMSON (-21.5) over Virginia
The 91st-ranked defense travels to face an offense that hasn’t scored fewer than 40 points at home. I will never forgive New York for banning college player props.
Nebraska (+6.5) over INDIANA
The Hoosiers have been a fun story, winning their first six games for the first time since 1967. They are one of two teams in the nation (Army) that hasn’t trailed in any game this season, but that could change against their first opponent with a pulse.
Alabama (-3) over TENNESSEE
Two weeks ago, both teams looked like national title contenders. Now, neither team looks worthy of a playoff spot. Jalen Milroe’s big-game experience and explosiveness ensure the Crimson Tide’s eighth-ranked offense will put up points. Tennessee freshman Nico Iamaleava can’t inspire as much confidence, passing for one touchdown in three SEC games — and passing for an average of fewer than 175 yards — for an offense that has been held without a touchdown in seven of its past 10 quarters of regulation.
Notre Dame (-11.5) over GEORGIA TECH
Since an inexplicable home loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish have won their past four games by a total of 133 points. Plus, Riley Leonard just surpassed 200 passing yards in a game for the first time in more than a year. Who can stop them now?
ILLINOIS (+3) over Michigan
How terrible did new Michigan starter Jack Tuttle (a sub-60 percent career passer, with as many interceptions as touchdown passes) look in practice if Davis Warren and Alex Orji — the authors of the nation’s fourth-worst passing attack — were tapped before him? Michigan is 0-3 against the spread as favorites, while Illinois has covered all three games as dogs this season.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+15.5) over Texas A&M
True freshman Michael Van Buren Jr.’s first two starts came at Texas and at Georgia. After throwing for 306 yards and three touchdowns in Athens, Mississippi State’s quarterback will be set up for greater success in his first home start.
Ucf (+13.5) over IOWA STATE
The Cyclones are 6-0 for the first time since the Great Depression, while Gus Malzahn has turned to three different quarterbacks to try to stop a three-game losing streak. According to the most advanced analytics available, the Knights are due to show some fight.
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Lsu (-3) over ARKANSAS
Expect the Hogs to leave a lot of points on the board when the nation’s ninth-worst red-zone offense faces LSU’s 11th-ranked red-zone defense. It may even be an issue for them to settle for three, with Arkansas kicker Kyle Ramsey ranked 102nd in the nation in field goal percentage (58.3).
WEST VIRGINIA (+3) over Kansas State
Avery Johnson has thrown four picks in the past three games. His shaky decision-making won’t improve against the best pass rush in the Big 12.
Best bets: Boston College, Nebraska, Alabama
Season: 53-51-1 (7-13-1)
2013-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30