As the 2024 presidential election looms, first-time homebuyers are hitting the brakes, waiting to see how the political winds blow before jumping into the market.
A new survey by Redfin reveals that nearly a quarter of prospective buyers — 23% — are postponing their purchase until after the election, hoping the outcome will bring policies that ease their path to homeownership.
The uncertainty of the election is clearly weighing on the minds of many younger buyers, especially as housing affordability remains a top concern. Among those surveyed, a significant chunk are closely following the housing proposals of the major candidates.
Trump supporters are looking to see how he will address affordable housing, given the former president’s focus on deregulation and economic growth, which could lead to new housing developments and more opportunities for homeownership.
Nearly 16% are keen to see how Trump’s potential policies on affordable housing could shape the market if he returns to office.
For some, the election’s outcome could be a game changer.
On the other side, Kamala Harris’ proposal, which includes $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time buyers, has caught the attention of more than 26% of respondents.
But economic critics that say her plan will cost a pretty penny — as much as $500 billion — which will further heighten inflation and does not address the primary reason housing has skyrocketed in the country in the last few years. High construction costs have been at the center of affordable housing crisis.
Lindsay Garcia, a Redfin agent in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, pointed out that buyer hesitancy isn’t limited to politics.
“The findings are a sign of buyer uncertainty about the election,” she said, referring to another study by Veterans United Home Loans, which found 38% of homebuyers are also pausing their searches. But, she added, this could be a temporary blip.
“The market is cyclical. The economy will keep improving and when we get past the election, buyers will start to feel more confident again.”
Despite the political drama, it’s not just election worries holding buyers back.
Over 30% of those surveyed said they’re still in savings mode, while nearly 29% believe the timing just isn’t right for their families.
Others, about 18%, are holding out for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, betting that lower rates will give them a better shot at affording a home.
Experts remain divided on whether the housing market will bounce back after the election dust settles. Real estate guru Ryan Serhant is bullish, recently telling Fox Business that he expects the market to roar back in 2025 as inventory rises and interest rates drop.
However, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, Mark Palim, remains cautious, noting that even with interest rates around 6%, sales are still sluggish.
“Consumers are paying attention to the easing interest rate environment but still feel stymied by the considerable run-up in home prices over the last four years,” he explained in a press release. As the countdown to Election Day continues, all eyes are on Washington.