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On Sunday, Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson suffered a devastating leg injury that ended his season after just five games.
His loss for his team cannot be overstated.
Hutchinson was the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, and his absence for the remainder of the season throws a wrench into that betting market.
Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II also dropped down the oddsboard after suffering a concussion very early in the team’s loss to the Chargers.
Surtain will likely miss at least one game, as the Broncos are playing on a short week with an appearance on “Thursday Night Football” against the Saints.
With Hutchinson and Surtain going down Sunday, is there any value in the Defensive Player of the Year market?
Let’s take a look at the FanDuel odds and find some heading into Week 7.
The favorites
T.J. Watt, Steelers edge rusher (+150)
Watt has 4.5 sacks, putting him on pace for just less than 13, assuming he plays all 17 games.
That would be significantly fewer than the 22.5 sacks he had when he won the DPOY award in 2021.
The award also hasn’t gone to a player on a team with a losing record since the Dolphins’ Jason Taylor won in 2006.
While the Steelers are 4-2, their schedule is backloaded with challenging games, and I’m still not confident this anemic offense that ranks 23rd in DVOA can lead them to an above-.500 record.
Chris Jones, Chiefs defensive tackle (+700)
While Jones has been one of the best defensive linemen in the league over the last several years, he’s never won a DPOY award.
He’s on pace for 10 sacks, which would not be a career-high, but he’s on an undefeated team that will be in the public eye all year.
Will Anderson Jr., Texans edge rusher (+800)
Anderson is one of the more intriguing players on the board.
The Texans’ second-year edge rusher has 5.5 sacks through six games, putting him on pace for 15.5 for the year.
He’s 1.5 sacks behind the league leader and plays for a 5-1 team.
Per ESPN, he ranks 10th in the NFL in pass-rush win rate, but offensive lines can’t effectively double-team him with Danielle Hunter on the other side.
Best bets
Fred Warner, 49ers linebacker (14/1)
It’s rare for a linebacker to win this award — it hasn’t happened since Luke Kuechly in 2013 — but Warner is a rare talent.
He’s stuffed the stat sheet this season with 50 tackles (20 TFLs), four forced fumbles, two interceptions (one being a 45-yard pick-six) and a sack.
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However, much of Warner’s impact doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, and this award typically goes to whoever leads the league in sacks that season.
However, he has arguably been more impactful than any other defensive player in the NFL this season, and he has plenty of highlight-reel plays already on his resume.
Xavier McKinney, Packers safety (25/1)
If you’re looking for a longer-odds pick in this market, consider McKinney, who leads the league with five interceptions.
He’s also credited with an 8.9 passer rating allowed in coverage by Pro Football Focus, the lowest of any safety in the NFL.
He’s been a transformative offseason addition for the Packers defense.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.