The United States Presidential Election is only 20 days away.
As Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump prepare to go head to head on November 5, recent polls have shown the race is becoming even closer.
Recent polls have shown Trump leading in a few swing states, but data has shown that he may be losing his edge with older voters.
Nationally, Harris is polling three points above Trump as of today. But in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina – some of the tightest races in the country – Harris is trailing behind Trump.
The 2024 Election may be one of the closest we’ve seen in decades.
What do the latest polls reveal?
The latest polls have been a bit surprising. In Wisconsin, one of the major swing states, Harris is leading by a small one point margin.
She’s made steady gains, but support for her has slightly stalled as we approach November 5. In 2020, Biden won over Trump in Wisconsin by a 0.63% margin – meaning this race will be tight.
In Arizona, another key state, Trump is leading above Harris with a comfortable 2 point margin.
To summarise the latest polls – it’s a tight race. Harris will likely have to ramp up her efforts to win black and Latino voters.
The economy has become a focal point for voters, with many Americans citing inflation as a major point for them in the election.
Quenton Jordan, a 30-year-old from Virginia, told the BBC: ‘Inflation has pretty much made it impossible, or extremely challenging, for people to provide basic necessities for their families.’
The next few weeks will reveal more about America’s leanings before the election.
Which states are swing states?
The term swing state refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate – they could go either way.
These are states where both parties have similar levels of support, and the margin between candidates is often minute.
The swing states – also known as ‘battleground states’ are important in determining the outcome of the election.
These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns.
This year, the swing states are
Currently, Trump is leading in
Harris is leading in
How accurate are the polls?
Polls are a great tool to have a look at what the public is thinking ahead of the election – but aren’t to be taken without a grain of salt.
They are often funded by groups which may have a political swing one way or the other, and can ‘present a different picture’ than reality, according to Pew, one of the most respected pollsters.
Most polls do have a margin of error that’s less than 3%, but data errors can happen within the polls.
For example, a HuffPost poll in 2016 said Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of beating Trump – which was completely wrong.
When is the US election?
Millions of voters will head to the polls in the US on November 5 – with millions more submitting their absentee or overseas ballots and voting early before then.
Even after the final polls close in America, it may take weeks for an official tally to be released, as each state is left to make their own counting procedures.
But often a clear winner is known within hours of the polls closing and the initial votes being tallied.
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