Robert Sabo for NY Post
It was quite the week in New York.
The Yankees and Mets qualified for MLB’s final four, taking the spotlight — for the moment, anyway — off the Jets, who fired head coach Robert Saleh and stripped Nathaniel Hackett of his play-calling duties.
Six days after the shocking news of Saleh’s dismissal, the Jets turn around and play host to division rival Buffalo on Monday night. That’s a lot to ask for any team, especially one as dysfunctional as Gang Green.
If the Bills win, they will extend their lead over the rest of the AFC East, while the Jets can take the division lead with a victory via a head-to-head advantage over the Bills.
Can the Jets rally behind interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich and string together a crucial win?
The odds are against them winning straight up, but it’s a different story against the spread.
Bills vs. Jets prediction against the spread
The Jets opened as one-point home favorites in this game, but the line has since moved to 2.5 points in favor of the Bills. Through the first five weeks, both teams are just 2-3 against the spread.
Last week against the Vikings, the Jets played about as poorly as they could have offensively, committing three turnovers and rushing for just 36 yards. All three turnovers were interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers, including a pick-six in the first quarter.
Rodgers (knee) and Bills QB Josh Allen (head) suffered injuries in Week 5, but each missed just a single snap before returning to finish their respective games. Both participated in practice throughout the week and are expected to play Monday.
Even with a healthy Allen, Buffalo has looked rough the past two weeks, losing by 25 points to the Ravens and by a field goal to the Texans.
Allen completed just nine of his 30 attempts in the Houston game, and the Bills were outgained in total offense by nearly 150 yards.
Allen and his receivers have not been on the same page, and Buffalo’s defense, which has been a strength in past years, has allowed 427 and 425 total yards, respectively, the past two games.
According to Action Network, there have been 38 teams since 2003 to fire their coach during the season. Those teams have gone 17-21 straight up (SU) and 22-16 against the spread (ATS) in the first game with their new head coach.
Also, Rodgers has the NFL’s best ATS record in night home games (28-14-1), per Action Network. When he has faced a divisional opponent, that mark is a league-best 19-6 ATS.
Recommendation: Jets +2.5 (-108, FanDuel)
Bills vs. Jets Over/Under pick
The point total has dropped from an opening line of 47.5 points to as low as 40.5 at some sportsbooks. The Jets have an Over record of 1-3-1, while Buffalo has gone Over the point total twice in five games.
After giving up 7.9 yards per play to the Ravens, Buffalo followed that up by surrendering 6.3 yards per play to the Texans. That might not be an issue against the Jets, who have been morbidly poor on offense, ranking 27th in total yards per game and 23rd in offensive DVOA.
Breece Hall has totaled just 27 rushing yards on 19 attempts over his past two games while getting no help from Rodgers, who once went an entire season (2018) with fewer interceptions (2) than he had against the Texans.
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The Jets could turn things around and grab a win, but it’s hard to imagine it will be because they put a boatload of points on the board.
Recommendation: Slight lean toward Under 41 points (-110, Caesars).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.