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Given the state of the Detroit Tigers’ starting rotation, it appeared as if they would need Tarik Skubal to win both of his starts to have a chance in the ALDS against Cleveland.
Heading into Monday’s Game 2, that rings particularly true after the Guardians’ dominant 7-0 victory in Game 1 on Saturday.
Tigers vs. Guardians Game 2 odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | -130 | -1.5 (+145) | o6 (-110) |
| Guardians | +110 | +1.5 (-175) | u6 (-110) |
Tigers vs. Guardians Game 2 prediction
Skubal was sensational in his playoff debut versus the Astros in the wild-card round and did more than simply live up to the hype of his spectacular regular season.
The AL Triple Crown winner allowed zero earned runs and four hits across six innings in a tough environment versus a proven playoff lineup.
Prior to that start, he put a bow on his case for the Cy Young with a 1.42 ERA and 2.06 FIP in his final five starts. In that span, he held a K-BB% of 28.2.
Results for most pitchers tail off considerably working through the order for a third time, which often leads to hotly contested decisions regarding how long to keep a starter in during the postseason.
However, Skubal’s have been excellent the third time through the order, which could be relevant considering how Tigers manager A.J. Hinch would love to keep his ace on the mound deep into Monday’s Game 2.
Working through the order for a third time, Skubal has still struck out 31% of batters, while allowing a batting average of just .215. That’s almost unheard of at the MLB level.
Matthew Boyd, will oppose Skubal on Monday, is a quality starter in his own right, which the Tigers are aware of given the veteran lefty spent parts of eight seasons in Detroit.
He’s in the best stretch of his career and seems to have found something in Cleveland after a career full of mediocrity.
In mid-August, Boyd made his first start in over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 39 2/3 innings over eight starts, he’s 2-2 with an ERA of 2.72.
He enters Game 2 with an xFIP of 3.89, an xERA of 3.10 and an xBA of .236. Pitching models are low on his arsenal (Stuff+ 75, Pitching+ of 95).
The Guardians’ second-half wRC+ of 106 versus left-handed pitchers ranks 12th. They struck out just 18.5% of the time in that span, but their strong plate discipline came at the cost, as they held a 27th-ranked hard-hit rate.
The Tigers hit to a wRC+ of 91 versus lefties in the second half, and were considerably more effective against righties with a wRC+ of 105.
Tigers vs. Guardians Game 2 pick
I think we will see Skubal rise to the occasion with another dominant outing on Monday afternoon.
If Detroit is going to do damage, it’s best chance will still be early on before the Guardians’ dominant high-leverage relievers enter the game, as they look to spot their ace a lead.
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Skubal has recorded wins in 61.2% of Skubal’s starts this season (19-of-31), which would suggest a betting line of -158 for him to record a win as a baseline.
While I would never try to argue, -158 is actually a fair price for a Skubal win in this tough spot. And given, that the actual price is +145 at bet365, that’s just too good to pass up.
Best bet: Tarik Skubal to record a win (+145, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.