The Department of Homeland Security warned Wednesday that the threat environment in the US will “remain high” in the coming year, with migrants with “terrorism ties” contributing to the elevated level.
“Over the next year, we expect some individuals with terrorism ties and some criminal actors will continue their efforts to exploit migration flows and the complex border security environment to enter the United States,” the department’s 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment warned.
“Individuals with potential terrorism connections continue to attempt to enter the Homeland at both the US-Mexico and US-Canada borders and also through the immigration system,” it added.
Through July of fiscal year 2024, 422 individuals on the federal Terrorist Screening Data Set were encountered by authorities trying to enter the US through the northern or southern border.
The terror watchlist includes people who “may be directly engaged in or supporting terrorist activities as well as known associates of watchlisted individuals, such as family members.”
US Customs and Border Protection encountered 283 watchlisted individuals at the US-Canada border and approximately 139 at the US‑Mexico border through July.
“Migrant encounters at our border have declined over the last year, but migrants are still arriving in high numbers, complicating border and immigration security,” according to the threat assessment.
The document also noted that there has been an uptick in migrant encounters on the northern border.
“Migrant encounters along the US-Canada border continue to increase, with over 181,000 migrant encounters in FY 2024 through August, compared to about 170,000 encounters at the same time in FY 2023,” the report stated.
“In contrast to the US-Mexico border, many watchlist encounters along the US-Canada border occur at ports of entry, and the vast majority of these individuals have legal status in Canada,” it continued.
Encounters with migrants from Eastern Hemisphere countries, where radical Islamic terrorism is more rampant, dropped slightly from 2023 — from 10% to 9% of overall encounters — “but remain a higher proportion of encounters than before FY 2023,” the report said.
Not included in the threat assessment were the damning findings of a DHS Inspector General report, released Monday, which found migrants were being allowed entry into the US without identification — making it impossible to definitively determine whether they were on the terror watch list.
In a 2023 review, the DHS IG observed 13% of migrants at two ports of entry (Nogales, Ariz., and San Ysidro, Calif.,) being allowed to self-report biographic information.
“[N]either CBP nor ICE could determine how many of the millions of noncitizens seeking entry in the United States each year entered without identification and whose self-reported biographic information was accepted,” the report noted, explaining that immigration officers are not required to keep track of whether a migrant presented identification when seeking entry.
“[N]either CBP nor ICE conducted a comprehensive risk assessment for these noncitizens to assess the level of risk these individuals present and developed corresponding mitigation measures,” the IG report added.
The DHS IG warned that allowing migrants into the country without identification documents posed a risk to domestic air travel because Transportation Security Administration agents would not be able to ensure that individuals on terror watchlists would not be allowed to board flights.
“TSA’s methods to screen for individuals who pose a threat would not necessarily prevent these individuals from boarding flights,” the report said.
The annual threat assessment, designed to both inform the public and federal, state and local DHS partners about potential threats to public safety and security, found that over the next year, “the terrorism threat environment in the Homeland will remain high.”
DHS indicated that it is “particularly concerned” about “violent extremist responses” to the 2024 election cycle and “foreign violent extremists” carrying out attacks in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Foreign terror groups ISIS and al Qaeda “maintain the enduring intent to conduct or inspire attacks in the Homeland and have leveraged the conflict in the Middle East to reaffirm this intent,” according to the report.
Among state actors, DHS expects Iran “to remain the primary sponsor of terrorism and continue its efforts to advance plots against individuals — including current and former US officials — in the United States.”
“The Homeland Security Assessment provides an important overview of the dynamic and evolving threat landscape, illustrating just how varied and challenging the threats we confront are,” Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement.
“It is because of the remarkable DHS workforce, and our close collaboration with our federal, state, local, tribal, territorial, and private sector partners, that we are able to meet the challenges and keep the American people safe and secure.”