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It can be all about timing when betting futures in the NFL, and now is the time to buy into the New Orleans Saints.
After a torrid start to the season in which they put up a combined 91 points in wins over the Panthers and Cowboys, the Saints came crashing back to earth with two one-score losses to the Eagles and Falcons, the latter of which shifted the balance of power in the NFC South.
New Orleans is the focus of this week’s NFL futures column. I’ll explain why the Saints’ first two games were anything but a mirage.
But before we get there, here’s a look at my growing NFL futures portfolio from the first four weeks:
2024 NFL futures betting
- Week 1: Jets to win Super Bowl
- Week 2: Seahawks to make playoffs and win NFC West
- Week 3: Ravens to win AFC North
- Week 4: Packers to win NFC North
Week 5 best bet: New Orleans Saints to win NFC South (+220, FanDuel)
The Saints travel this week to Kansas City to take on the the defending champs, who are one of two clubs that remain undefeated after four games. However, that game looks entirely winnable, given the injuries the Chiefs are currently dealing with in their skill position group.
Even if that’s a loss, New Orleans has upcoming home games against the Buccaneers and Falcons in divisional play and winnable games against the Broncos, Chargers and Panthers.
Derek Carr is still Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback, and the new-look Saints offense under Klint Kubiak is transformative, even if it looked something less of than that the last two weeks. The Saints still rank in the top eight in offensive DVOA and EPA, outpacing the rest of the division.
Kubiak has Carr operating in play-action on the third-highest rate of dropbacks in the NFL, and he’s the league’s highest-graded passer on play-action.
The offensive line remains a significant weakness, but Kubiak has found ways to coach around it, and play-action passing is undoubtedly an effective way to do so.
New Orleans also has the best defense in the NFC South, ranking in the top five in DVOA and EPA.
Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Marshon Lattimore remain an elite tandem in the secondary, Kool-Aid McKinstry has hit the ground running in his rookie season and Alontae Taylor has made plays all over the field at nickelback.
The edge-rushing duo of Carl Granderson and Chase Young has also been effective, which is important with Cameron Jordan winding down at 35 years old.
Week 5 futures best bet
If you’d rather wait to see if you can get an even better number if the Saints lose to the Chiefs this week, I wouldn’t blame you, but I believe New Orleans may be live for the prime-time upset in Arrowhead.
If they pull that win off, it likely will be too late to grab this number, which momentarily has plenty of value. They are currently behind both the Falcons (+165) and Buccaneers (+195).
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FTN Fantasy makes the Saints the favorite to win the NFC South (48.2%), even with their loss to Atlanta last week. The +220 odds on FanDuel equate to a 31.3% implied probability, giving us a significant value.
I’m adding the Saints to my portfolio this week with intentions of hedging with the Falcons or Buccaneers later this season.
Best bet: Saints to win NFC South (+220, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.