A historian dubbed the Nostradamus of US presidential elections for correctly predicting almost every outcome over four decades has revealed whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win the 2024 race.
American University professor Allan Lichtman, 77, dished out his forecast for the November election last month, based on a model centering on 13 keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s keys turn a blind eye to polls and pundits, which are closely followed indicators as the November election nears.
Instead, his keys were developed from 120 years of presidential election results and are called based on answering true-false questions around the performance of party currently in the White House.
His 13 keys are: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure and foreign policy success.
Early last month, Lichtman had Harris losing only three keys – midterm gains, incumbency and incumbent charisma. The foreign policy failure and foreign policy success keys appeared shaky, but even if Harris lost them, she would have five false keys instead of six, which would deem her as the loser.
‘Even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,’ Lichtman told The New York Times.
.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.