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Consistent pitching has been the key to the Royals’ first trip back to the postseason since their World Series title in 2015.
If you look a bit closer though, there are vulnerabilities that their staff’s numbers reveal.
Aside from the benefits of pitching inside a home run-subdued ballpark like Kauffman Stadium, which hosted the fourth-fewest home runs in baseball, Kansas City pitchers were not heavy strikeout achievers, ranking 22nd overall.
Cole Ragans, who is rolling off his best month — with a 1.08 ERA in four starts — within a career season, will make his playoff debut in Game 1 of the wild-card round against the Orioles.
Momentum aside, Ragans took an overall bump in exit velocity this year. The third-year lefty is tasked with containing a Baltimore lineup that pumped out the fourth-highest barrels-hit-per-plate-appearance rate.
Royals vs. Orioles Game 1 odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | +124 | +1.5 (-184) | o6.5 (-122) |
| Orioles | -146 | -1.5 (+152) | u6.5 (+100) |
Corbin Burnes steps to the hill for Baltimore as the No. 1 he was acquired to be when the Orioles traded for him in the offseason. Per Statcast, Burnes remained within the top five percent of pitchers in hard-hit percentage.
With the exception of Bobby Witt Jr., who finished with a second-best overall WAR of 9.2, this isn’t a potent Royals lineup in power hitting.
Kansas City batted .236 on the road and furthermore, Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are the only Royals who have hit barrels efficiently, according to Statcast.
Burnes will be making his ninth postseason appearance, boasting a 2.84 playoff ERA.
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With both bullpens at full strength, there isn’t much difference between the two; they were nearly identical in both ERA and FIP in 2024.
This is primed to be a premiere pitching showcase between Burnes and the emergent Ragans, but when push comes to shove, the edge comes down to experience and power-hitting depth.
THE PLAY: Orioles moneyline (-146, FanDuel)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.