‘American politics matters to Canada because American politics affect American policies — and policies could have a significant impact on Canada’
BANFF — Albertans don’t need to dust off the history books to see how much change can arrive for Canada when a new president takes power south of the border.
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 led to the tumultuous renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Joe Biden’s victory four years later triggered the termination of the Keystone XL pipeline — and a $1.3-billion loss for Alberta taxpayers.
Today, as polls show a tight race for the White House, the Nov. 5 election will have consequences, regardless of whether it’s Trump or Kamala Harris who wins the contest.
“If the last two elections are any indication, this election will come down to roughly 100,000 votes or less, spread out over just a handful of states,” David Wilkins, former U.S. ambassador to Canada, said during a panel discussion at the annual Global Business Forum.
With 40 days to go, the race for president is a toss-up, while the U.S. Senate is leaning toward the Republicans, and the House of Representatives is leaning toward the Democrats, he said.
“This could be one of the closest races ever that we’ve had,” Wilkins said in an interview.
“It does make a difference. American politics matters to Canada because American politics affect American policies — and policies could have a significant impact on Canada.”
During the campaign, Trump has promised to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all imported products if he wins. Such a move could have significant implications for a trade-focused province such as Alberta, if Canada doesn’t win an exemption from such a levy.
Alberta exported $156 billion worth of goods south last year, with oil and gas making up more than 80 per cent of that total.
As president, Trump vowed to renegotiate the original NAFTA agreement, which led to the new Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). That deal comes up for a mandatory joint review in 2026.
“If Trump wins, we know he’s an unpredictable counterparty, to say the least. The last time we were renegotiating NAFTA, he imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum for national security reasons,” former deputy prime minister John Manley said in an interview before the panel.
“When the bill came to approve the deal that was negotiated, one of the few senators to vote against it was Sen. Harris. So, we have our hands full with the renewal of the trade agreement, whichever way it goes.”
Former premier Jason Kenney said Canadians should watch for any acceleration of bipartisan American protectionism in the presidential and congressional races, which could surface in issues such as Buy America, the softwood lumber dispute or Trump’s tariff plans.
“It could be perilous times for what is by far our most important trading relationship,” he said in an interview.
For Alberta, energy will be a critical file to watch; Canada is the largest supplier of foreign oil to the U.S.
Based on Trump’s record and remarks, his administration would be “friendlier to fossil fuels and production of North American energy, and friendlier to pipelines,” although it might rescind some of the clean energy breaks adopted by Biden, said Wilkins, who was appointed ambassador by former president George W. Bush.
Conversely, he expects a Harris administration would stick with the green energy incentives in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, but would not be as receptive to maximizing oil and gas production.
Kenney, whose provincial government invested in KXL to see construction started — before Biden yanked its permit in 2021 — believes the economic rationale for a major cross-border oil pipeline still makes sense.
“If we’re ever going to move forward with any new major greenfield oilsands projects, so that we can sustain or increase our production in the long term, we’re going to need additional egress — and the likeliest customers are the United States through some version of Keystone XL,” he said.
“This is something that governments could de-risk in the same way Ottawa did with the Trans Mountain expansion, and the government of Alberta could play a leadership role in that.”
Such an idea could see a Crown corporation formed to move the project forward, opening up the process for a midstream company to bid on constructing it, he added.
However, Manley noted project proponent TC Energy has turned the page on Keystone XL. And he doubts another company would risk making such an investment.
“The four years of the Trump administration wasn’t enough to get it built. So, it takes a long time.”
And then there’s the tariff talk.
Carlo Dade, the Canada West Foundation’s director of trade and trade infrastructure, noted a global tariff proposal being floated by some U.S. think-tanks would be unprecedented — if adopted by Trump — as it would start at 10 per cent and climb by five per cent annually for each year the U.S. runs a trade deficit.
“I don’t think they will implement the (global) tariff but they will have scared everyone to death with the threat of the tariff, and then it is Trump’s favourite game . . . Let’s Make a Deal,” Dade said in an interview.
As for a Harris administration, he doesn’t think much would change for Canada from the past four years.
Kenney said Canada needs to watch the U.S. landscape carefully after the election, including key files such as immigration and national defence.
Federal and provincial governments should be upping their diplomatic game, engaging with political and economic leaders beyond Washington, D.C., to press Canada’s case.
“At the end of the day, it’s still the most successful economic relationship in human history, with deep historical and human ties,” he added.
“So one’s got to be optimistic about the durability of the relationship. You can’t take it for granted.”
Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.