The free-agent market is amazingly highlighted by a superstar for a third straight year, and what separates Juan Soto from even all-time greats Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani is that Soto is only 25.
As we saw last winter when the also then-25 Yoshinobu Yamamoto cost $325M (plus a $50.6M posting fee), age does play.
Here’s where the top eight free agents stand (including those likely to opt out of current deals).
1. Juan Soto
The Yankees are understandably anxious to bring back Soto. “They didn’t trade for Soto thinking he’d only be there for a year,” says a rival GM. But the GM adds, because he’s so young “every team can talk themselves into it.” The Mets are likely to play and while they can outbid anyone, it isn’t easy to leave the Bronx. The Giants, Jays and Cubs tried to trade for Soto, and the Dodgers and Phillies can never be ruled out. Our 13-agent poll suggested $520M but the guess here is he cracks $600M or comes close.
2. Corbin Burnes
The incumbent Orioles can’t be assumed out for this consistent ace now that the Angelos brood is gone. Might he shoot for Gerrit Cole money?
3. Willy Adames
His huge platform year sets him up for monster deal. A club-record 32 home runs for a shortstop plus 109 RBIs (one less than NL leader Ohtani) could translate to $200M-plus.
4. Pete Alonso
In an alleged “off” year, he has 33 homers and his 127 OPS+ is actually higher than 2023 following recent mechanical adjustments. The Mets reasonably tried $158M last year, but he can probably beat that. One rival predicts $185M. If not the Mets, the Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles, Padres and Cubs all work (and possibly the Yankees if Soto walks).
5. Max Fried
His 2.89 ERA is the lowest among qualified starters since 2021 and he’s ninth all-time in ERA+ with a 139 mark (125 starts minimum). His Harvard-Westlake teammate Jack Flaherty is thriving in L.A., so why not him?
6. Alex Bregman
The $151M deal for Matt Chapman likely raised the bar for a third baseman who’s a better hitter and nearly as great a third baseman (and who proved he could play shortstop in a pinch, and surely second, as well). The Astros don’t like a Xander Bogaerts comp and have been willing to let core stars leave.
7. Blake Snell*
The opt out is going to pay off big-time after he produced dominance in San Francisco. A second straight season of excellence (with fewer walks and more staying power) should greatly expand his market. The Giants surely want him back, but the rival Dodgers, who got into the Snell sweepstakes late (but resisted an opt out) could too.
8. Anthony Santander
The 41 homers in his platform year could make him a nine-figure guy.
The next tier: Nate Eovaldi*, Sean Manaea*, Jack Flaherty, Teoscar Hernandez, Yusei Kikuchi, Christian Walker, Luis Severino.
*Opt out (Cody Bellinger also can opt out but he’s more uncertain to do so, while there’s a possibility that Japanese superstar right-hander Roki Sasaki also becomes a free agent, but that remains iffy)