REUTERS
New polling reveals Democratic momentum in three states pivotal to Kamala Harris’ White House hopes: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
A Quinnipiac survey released Wednesday shows the vice president up in all three critical ‘blue wall’ states.
Harris leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan 50% to 45% among 905 likely voters surveyed, with Green Party nominee Jill Stein siphoning off 2% and exceeding the 0.7% lead Harris has on average in polls of the state, which awards 15 electoral votes.
If this number holds, the veep will outperform Biden, who won the Wolverine State by roughly 30,000 votes in 2020.
Harris is buoyed by a marginal lead with Michigan independents (47% to 44%) and almost complete buy-in from Democrats — 98% support her, while 94% of GOP registrants back Trump.
In Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, Harris is in her strongest position in any poll this cycle.
There she leads 51% to 45% among the 1,334 likely voters polled, with Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver pulling 1% each.
A 48% to 43% lead with independents helps, as does party loyalty, with 95% of Democrats professing support for the VP; Trump draws 91% of Republicans.
Harris’ average lead in Pennsylvania polling is 0.6%, suggesting this survey could be an outlier. Precedent suggests as much: Biden won the Keystone State last cycle by roughly 80,000 votes.
And in Wisconsin, where 10 electoral votes are up for grabs, Harris leads Trump 48% to 47% among 1,075 likely voters, with the Libertarian taking 1%. Oliver’s margin aligns with Harris’ average lead of 1.2% in the Badger State.
The reasons for the smaller margin here are twofold. First, Trump and Harris are tied with independent voters, at 46% each.
Compared with the other two blue-wall states, the former president has more intraparty backing in the Dairy State than the current veep — 95% of Republicans back Trump, and 94% of Dems back Harris.
On issues, voters in the trio of battlegrounds rank Trump as strongest on the economy and immigration, while abortion, preserving democracy and crisis management are stronger issues for Harris.
The survey also looked at down-ballot races, where Republicans have ground to make up.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in a fight for a Michigan Senate seat, 51% to 46%.
In Wisconsin, entrenched Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde 51% to 47%.
And the polling suggests early returns on election night won’t tell the whole story. A majority of Election Day voters say they will cast ballots for Trump, but Harris looks likely to win the race for absentee ballots.