Despite the growth in the urban areas the NDP is counting on for support, the roadmap to win the next Saskatchewan election remains extremely limited.
The Saskatchewan Party government has resurrected one of its favourite boasts about so-called record population growth.
Never mind that the population was growing at a faster pace when the NDP left office in 2007, that Saskatchewan has among the lowest growth rates among provinces and that this growth will evaporate when federal immigration levels are inevitably curbed.
Saskatoon still has 14, Regina 12 and Prince Albert two. But in the five years before the 2021 census, Saskatoon ballooned as one of Canada’s fastest growing cities by seven per cent to 266,141, to lead the province. Regina grew by 5.3 per cent to 226,404 and Prince Albert grew by 5.1 per cent to 37,756.
Saskatchewan overall expanded by 3.1 per cent over those five years, the second-lowest among provinces. Manitoba grew by five per cent over that same period and Alberta grew by 4.8 per cent.
Post-census estimates show Saskatoon has surpassed 300,000 residents, but it heads into the election with the same 14 seats after some boundary adjustments.
Is that fair? Based on 2021 numbers, Saskatoon has about 24 per cent of Saskatchewan’s population and 23 per cent of the seats. Regina has one-fifth of the population and one-fifth of the seats; Prince Albert has about three per cent of both population and seats.
The growth in the other 14 Saskatchewan cities amounted to less than one percent over those five years — and most of that came from the Saskatoon bedroom communities of Martensville and Warman. The rest all registered either minimal growth or decline.
The number of people living in towns decreased by 1,005 to 149,600. The number living in villages dropped by nearly three per cent to 40,407.
Almost everywhere outside of Saskatchewan’s three largest cities is marked by either stagnation or decline.
Still, any path to victory for the NDP remains exceedingly narrow. Let’s say the NDP performed the unlikely feat of sweeping Regina and Saskatoon, captured the two northern seats of Athabasca and Cumberland, which are traditional strongholds, and added the two Prince Albert seats.
That very optimistic scenario would still leave the party one seat short of a majority. The NDP would need at least one seat from Moose Jaw or maybe The Battlefords for a one-seat edge.
Brkich could syphon enough votes from John Owojori, who won a nomination contest to represent the government, to allow an NDP win.
That sort of fracturing perfectly encapsulates why the Saskatchewan Party was created and suggests its formidable coalition could be dissolving.
Phil Tank is the digital opinion editor at the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
Our websites are your destination for up-to-the-minute Saskatchewan news, so make sure to bookmark thestarphoenix.com and leaderpost.com. For Regina Leader-Post newsletters click here; for Saskatoon StarPhoenix newsletters click here