The continuing spike in violent robberies, such as muggings and carjackings, can’t be blamed on COVID anymore, says one of the report’s authors
The Macdonald Laurier Institute’s Urban Violent Crime Report sheds new light on the state of Canada’s increasingly unsafe streets, including an alarming rise in the incidence of urban sex crimes.
“Sexual assaults were up in every city we looked at,” co-author Dave Snow said in an interview this week. “This was by far our most consistent finding.”
The spike in sexual violence was especially sharp in the Greater Toronto Area. The sexual assault rate almost doubled in the York Region between 2016 and 2023, going from 28.0 to 55.2 per 100,000. Sexual assaults were up by more than 30 per cent in the neighbouring Peel Region, from 38 to 52 per 100,000.
Sexual assaults topped the 100 per 100,000 mark in two cities: Edmonton and Winnipeg. Vancouver was excluded from the sexual assault rankings because of an issue with local data collection.
The report also found that the post-COVID surge in violent acts of robbery, such as muggings and carjackings, continued in 2023. Robberies were up last year in all major cities except Vancouver.
“We can’t blame (the spike in robberies) on COVID anymore,” said Snow, noting that pandemic lockdowns were lifted by the start of 2022 and the trend of increased personal thefts only worsened in 2023.
Winnipeg’s 2023 robbery rate of 305.9 per 100,000 was nearly triple that of every other major city.
Trends for homicide and aggravated assault were more mixed, with Edmonton and Winnipeg sitting at the bottom of the pile.
Winnipeg’s murder rate of 5.97 per 100,000 made it Canada’s most dangerous city last year. Edmonton edged out Winnipeg to lead the pack in aggravated assaults, at 38.72 per 100,000.
Murder was up in five of Canada’s nine biggest urban population centres last year.
Generally speaking, crime followed a westward tilt, with western cities and Toronto seeing the highest levels of violent crime.
The report draws from 10 years of police-reported violent crime data, spanning 2014 to 2023.
Peter Copeland, the institute’s deputy director of domestic policy, said that the report’s grim findings should prod policymakers to think seriously about stiffening sentencing guidelines for violent offences.
“While governments need to address various factors affecting crime — such as improving rehabilitation programs — stronger sentences for the most serious crimes are also an important aspect of criminal justice reform,” Copeland said in an email.
Copeland added that courts have tended in recent years to overturn mandatory minimum sentences, due in part to a loosening philosophy of judicial interpretation.
“In the absence of judicial or sentencing reform, a future federal government may consider the use of a tool like the notwithstanding clause.”
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